Pennsylvania is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and the race in the Keystone State is virtually even. It's an integral state, and Kamala Harris will likely need to win at least two of the three "blue wall" states — the normally Democratic Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 — to win the presidency.
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 55% | 45% |
| BetMGM | 52% | 48% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds a slim lead at BetMGM UK, while the prediction markets have Trump with a slight lead as well.
Pennsylvania Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +0.4%, Trump 53% to win
- Split Ticket: Harris +0.5, Harris 53% to win
- 24cast: Harris +2.6%, Harris 71% to win
In early voting, Democrats lead Republicans by a bit more than 400,000 votes, but that’s in large part to all the early voting being done by mail. By return rate of mailed out ballots, it’s nearly a dead heat between the two parties at 81.6% for Republicans to 82.5% for Democrats.
That said, Republicans would prefer a return rate advantage given more Democrats this year are shifting back to in-person voting on election day.
There’s also a polling split between statewide polls of PA showing a nearly tied race as seen in the FiveThirtyEight and Split Ticket polling averages. However, district level polling, which was one of the key indicators of a Donald Trump win in 2016, has favored an environment more like 2020 when Joe Biden won the Keystone State, or even better for Harris.
For example, in 2020 Trump won Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District by 4.4%, but polling has Trump only +3% this cycle. In the 7th district, Biden won by 4.8% while polling has Harris +4%. It looks even better for Harris in PA-10, where she polled 5% ahead of Trump in a Susquehanna poll in early October despite Trump winning the district by 2.9% in 2020.
Reading the tea leaves, I’d lean toward a bet on Harris in Pennsylvania at 50%, but not at -122.
Verdict: Lean Harris at EVEN (50%) or better
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
