Like so many pundits, Paul Krishnamurty heard it in 2016. He was criticized, along with TV reporters, forecasters and every other pundit who got it wrong. He just didn't see Donald Trump coming.
Today, the political betting analyst for European sportsbook and betting exchange Betfair is staking his entire reputation as a political gambling authority in Europe on his call for 2020.
It's definitely Joe Biden.
[Updated Presidential Odds: Betting Market Thinks It's a Closer Race Than Polls Indicate]
"First of all, the national polling wasn't wrong," said Krishnamurty. "It was the lack of data that had we had inside the states. And secondly, four years ago, 15 to 20 percent of the country was undecided, and that made it hard. There isn't nearly that amount today."
Krishnamurty said a lot of the betting volume naturally comes on Trump, with 75 to 80 percent of all bets being placed on the incumbent.
"If you are going to bet, you're more likely going to be on him," he said. "He's so famous, he's so dominating."
But Krishnamurty said the smart money is on Biden, with the top 10 bets by size on the Betfair Exchange coming on the Democratic challenger and eight of those coming in within the last two weeks.
Top-10 Biggest Bets for the 2020 Presidential Election
| Date | Amount Wagered | Bet (Odds) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 29 | $1,291,500 | Biden (-185) |
| Oct. 21 | $645,750.00 | Biden (-182) |
| Oct. 26 | $645,750.00 | Biden (-200) |
| Oct. 30 | $399,654.68 | Biden (-189) |
| Oct. 31 | $398,980.51 | Biden (-200) |
| Oct. 27 | $395,406.93 | Biden (-200) |
| Oct. 31 | $387,450 | Biden (-196) |
| Jan. 11 | $387,450 | Biden (-200) |
| Oct. 29 | $385,975.11 | Biden (-189) |
| Jan. 11 | $349,740.78 | Biden (-200) |
Said Krishnamurty: "It's possible it will be a landslide and then it will be laughable to make a case that some fraud was part of this."
The people who say Trump will prevail again despite the polls strongly favoring Biden often reason that it's because people polled simply aren't willing to say who they are voting for.
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"There are people who say that Trump would lose in the polling against anyone," Krishnamurty said. "Well, we know that's not true. He was beating Bernie Sanders. He was beating Elizabeth Warren. But remember, there was polling as early as 2015 on Trump versus Biden and Biden has always been ahead."
