It came as little surprise Monday evening when former President Donald Trump won the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses in resounding fashion, with the Associated Press calling the race just 31 minutes after the caucuses began.
The combination of Trump's win in Iowa and Ron DeSantis likely beating Nikki Haley for second in the caucuses meant a milestone for the former president in the 2024 presidential election odds. On Monday night, Donald Trump's chances to win the presidency in 2024 passed 40% for the first time in this election campaign, as measured by the 2024 presidential election odds.
For those who might be novices to betting, the odds on any futures market can be converted into an implied probability of that outcome happening, which is just another way of saying the chances of the bet winning. In this instance, that bet is "Who will win the presidency in 2024?"
As of Monday night's win in Iowa, Donald Trump's odds to win the 2024 presidential election are +132. Based on the odds on all the other candidates, that is a 40.43% chance that Trump wins the presidency in 2024. Trump's odds to win the presidency were 39.37% coming into Monday's caucuses.
Odds via European exchange Betfair. Implied probability is "fair" implied probability, without the vigorish. Sportsbooks cannot offer political betting in the United States.
Trump had been -10000 to win Iowa, odds that implied a greater than 95% chance of winning the state.
The former president opened as the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at +250 in July 2022, followed by DeSantis at +300 and Joe Biden at +550.
President Biden has the second-best odds to win the 2024 presidential election at +200, a 31.27% chance to win reelection.
For more on the 2024 presidential election odds, check out the full Presidential Election Odds: Updated Odds after Iowa Caucuses.
