The Supreme Court caught everyone's attention on Monday when it ruled that American presidents have broad immunity from prosecution for certain crimes. The ruling became the talk across social media — and also had a slight impact on the latest 2024 presidential election odds.
Before Monday's Supreme Court ruling, former President Donald Trump had -200 odds to win the presidency in November. Curiously, after the ruling, Trump's odds are now -175, which means the presidential election predictions for Trump to win the electoral college are actually now slightly worse than they were before the decision. That's a change in Trump's predicted chances to win the election from 56.03% to 54.90%.
Why did Trump's odds get worse given a Supreme Court ruling that was so clearly in his favor? That's a reflection of just how complicated the presidential election odds market is. While that good news for Trump is one variable, so is the continued discussion around whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate for the presidency.
As that debate continues, other Democrats are seeing their odds to win the necessary 270 electoral votes improve, which in turn is having a very slight impact on both Biden and Trump, with the market seeming to indicate a candidate other than Biden might have a slightly better chance of defeating Trump.
With all that in mind, here are the latest 2024 presidential election odds and predictions.
2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -175 | 54.90% |
| Joe Biden | +375 | 18.16% |
| Gavin Newsom | +900 | 8.63% |
| Michelle Obama | +1400 | 5.75% |
| Kamala Harris | +1600 | 5.07% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +2000 | 4.11% |
| Hillary Clinton | +5000 | 1.69% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.69% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
Although President Joe Biden's odds to win reelection did improve slightly after Monday's Supreme Court ruling, going from +425 to +375 (a 16.01% chance to win reelection to an 18.16% chance), it was Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer who saw the biggest increase in her presidential election predictions and odds.
Before last week's first presidential debate, Whitmer was longer than 100-1 to win the 2024 presidential election. After the debate, she moved to +4000. And now, following Monday's Supreme Court decision, Whitmer is +2000, the fifth-best odds to win the election behind Trump, Biden, Gavin Newsom (now +900 after moving all the way to +650 following last week's debate), Michelle Obama (+1400) and Vice President Kamala Harris (+1600).
Trump has been the odds-on favorite to win the election since his victory over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the last of the candidates opposing Trump in the Republican primary.
The Democrats are +145 to be the party that wins the election, but were -105 before Thursday's debate. Meanwhile, an Independent or other party winning is now +4000. Relatedly, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now +5000 to win in November — the same odds as Hillary Clinton.
Winning Party of 2024 Election
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -200 | 60.65% |
| Democrats | +145 | 37.13% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +4000 | 2.22% |
