2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions: Kamala Harris is Now Favored Over Joe Biden

While Donald Trump remains a resounding favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, there are big, big questions on the other side of the ballot come this November. Many are wondering if Joe Biden will even be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024.

And in the latest presidential election odds, Biden has now fallen behind the marketplace to his vice president, Kamala Harris. Harris is now the favorite to become the Democratic nominee.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Kamala Harris presidential election odds are now +450, better than Joe Biden's odds.

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.

After an awful performance by Biden in the first debate of the 2024 election, multiple reports indicate that many Democrats strongly believe the president needs to step aside for a different candidate. Of course, even if Biden agreed that he was a liability — or at least not the best candidate to win the electoral college — it wouldn't be as simple as just replacing his name on ballots.

Biden would need to unilaterally bow out of the race, something that he and his team showed no indication of doing until the New York Times reported on Wednesday that the President told a key ally that his campaign may have become untenable.

Most glaringly, there's the question of all of the money that has been raised for the Biden/Harris campaign. According to campaign finance experts, the only person who can use that money for the 2024 presidential campaign other than Biden is Kamala Harris. This would be possible only if she is the presidential candidate, not if she is the vice-presidential candidate for someone other than Biden.

It seems the betting markets have reflected this conclusion, as the odds for Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton all got slightly longer on Wednesday afternoon.

The odds of Harris becoming president have risen precipitously over the past few weeks. Before the debate, Harris was a +5000 long shot, with a 1.72% chance of winning the presidency. Immediately following that first debate, Harris' odds vaulted all the way to +1200. Earlier this week, her odds got slightly longer at +1600, before moving to +1100 on Tuesday then again to +550 overnight on Wednesday.

Then, she became the favorite later in the afternoon at +450. It's the shortest odds she's had this entire cycle.

Donald Trump Odds for President

Donald Trump is a -200 favorite to win the 2024 election and re-claim the White House. That gives Trump a 55.92% chance to win the electoral college based on the current election odds, which offer a complementary perspective to national polls. Trump became a -200 favorite after last week's presidential debate; he was -150 heading into the debate. Trump's odds slipped slightly to -175 earlier this week, but with the Harris movement, Trump is back to -200.

Joe Biden Odds for President

President Joe Biden's odds of reelection are +550, which means the current presidential election predictions based on the market project a 12.61% chance of a second Biden term. Biden was +163 (33.31% chance) before the first debate and plummeted to +425 immediately after, before moving to the current +550.