There are few things as exciting as Super Tuesday in the world of American politics.
And this time around, it’s the Democratic party in the spotlight after a tumultuous 72-hour period that was highlighted by a Joe Biden resurrection in South Carolina and three candidates suspending their campaigns.
Biden defied the odds Saturday and scored a blowout win in South Carolina, defeating Sanders and the slew of others in the process. Biden finished close to 30 percentage points ahead of Sanders, followed by billionaire Tom Steyer in third place.
That Biden triumph, which saved his campaign and derailed Sanders’ plan for an early celebration, also led to multiple candidates suspending their campaigns. Steyer was the first depart, followed by Iowa caucuses winner Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar, along with former candidate and Texas politician Beto O’Rourke, then joined the Biden campaign, with the trio endorsing the former vice president.
Biden’s strong showing going into today’s state battles led to a major shift in the odds to win the Democratic nomination. Biden, who was +250 after winning the South Carolina primary, is a -149 favorite at the European book Betfair, while Bernie Sanders sits at +188. Numbers aside, this is now a tight, two-candidate race with everything on the line in today’s primaries.
Given how quickly everything can shift, you can find some nice betting value in a few state-specific races today. Here are my top plays for Tuesday’s key primaries.
Check out the best online sportsbooks in the U.S. and download our FREE app to get more political odds and betting analysis.
Super Tuesday Best Bets
TEXAS
Pick: SANDERS (8/11 odds to win at Ladbrokes)
One might think Biden would have all the momentum going into Texas, which he probably does. The problem for Biden, though, is the fact more than 2 million Texans showed up at the polls to voted early and prior to Biden’s triumph in South Carolina, which helps Sanders. And the fact Biden’s win didn’t come until late Saturday and he is likely not going to have a big enough surge to surpass Sanders. Biden will pick up his share of delegates, but Texas is Sanders’ state to lose and I don’t see that happening.
OKLAHOMA
Pick: BIDEN (3/4 odds to win at Unibet)
Biden is the slight favorite over Sanders, but he should favored at a bigger number. The defections of Buttigieg and Klobuchar are going to lead to the majority of their constituents jumping on the Biden train, leading to a win in the Heartland.
ARKANSAS
Pick: BIDEN (1/4 odds to win at Ladbrokes)
The only reason this number isn’t bigger is the unknown impact Mike Bloomberg is going to have in Razorback country. For me, Biden’s South Carolina win is going to lead to voters exiting the Bloomberg camp. Biden will own the majority (if not all) of the southern states and welcome the former New York City mayor’s supporters in the process. Expect a rout.
Futures Action
With things getting ultra-tight between Sanders and Biden, the chances of a contested Democratic National Convention are becoming more of a reality.
And for me, the best play out there is located at Ladbrokes, where you can get 4/5 odds on a brokered convention happening. I can’t see either Biden or Sanders hitting the magic number of 1,991 pledged delegates going into July’s convention in Milwaukee, leading me to strongly back this play and gift number.
Another wager where you can find a ton of value and hit someone at a price is for Democratic Vice President Nominee. Klobuchar and Georgia politician Stacey Abrams are the favorites sitting at 6/1 odds, followed by presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, former candidate Kamala Harris and longtime Sanders surrogate Nina Turner at 8/1 odds.
The overwhelming belief from oddsmakers is that a female will be the VP pick, with Ladbrokes putting 10 women in the top 12 betting choices.
If you feel like Sanders is going to win, go with Turner. Biden’s selection is tougher, but I would back Warren as my sharp play and look for anyone offering former United States Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates at long odds.
