Texas is a key state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald is favored to take it home. Texas has been a staple for Republican candidates for some time now, and Trump hopes that will continue to be the case as he attempts to reclaim the presidency.
Texas Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 91% | 9% |
| BetMGM | 92% | 8% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
If you do bet at BetMGM, be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code ACTION for$1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.
Texas Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +7.6%, Trump 93% to win
- Split Ticket: Trump +6.8, Trump 83% to win
- 24cast: Trump +6.4%, Trump 90% to win
Texas’ region and demographic makeup make it so that it doesn’t really feel the impact of the Selzer poll.
Thus, Texas mainly only comes into play as part of a larger polling environment miss, but that’s already baked into the odds here.
Verdict: Pass
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
