In the modern era of presidential elections, the Rust Belt is regarded as one of the most important regions to conquer. If one wants to become the President of the United States, winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio are of the utmost importance.
In recent weeks, Donald Trump served french fries and hamburgers at a Pennsylvania McDonald's before attending a Pittsburgh Steelers game. Of course, that was preceded by a rally that featured ex-Steelers players, such as the infamous Antonio Brown.
Antonio Brown spoke today at a Donald Trump rally. This is real life. pic.twitter.com/XTdJVOWhJJ
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 19, 2024
In the same vein, Kamala Harris was stumping in Michigan as she seeks to earn the vote of the Wolverine State.
So, what do the odds say about the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in these states?
Trump vs. Harris Election Odds Pennsylvania
| Presidential Candidate | BetMGM UK Pennsylvania Odds | Implied Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -133 | 53.3% |
| Kamala Harris | +100 | 46.7% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
According to BetMGM UK, Trump has a slim edge in the Keystone State. He has split his attempts at PA in his two presidential bids, winning in 2016 and dropping the state to Joe Biden in 2020.
Pennsylvania is widely regarded as the most pivotal state in the 2024 election.
Trump vs. Harris Election Odds Michigan
| Presidential Candidate | BetMGM UK Michigan Odds | Implied Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -125 | 52% |
| Kamala Harris | -105 | 48% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed.
Over in Michigan, the margins are razor thin, at least according to the markets. The implied probability split of 52% and 48% represents the second-closest state race at BetMGM.
Like Pennsylvania, Trump carried Michigan in 2016 before suffering defeat to Biden in 2020.
Trump vs. Harris Election Odds Wisconsin
| Presidential Candidate | BetMGM UK Wisconsin Odds | Implied Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -120 | 51% |
| Kamala Harris | -110 | 49% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed.
The tightest state in the BetMGM election odds is Wisconsin, another state that Trump won in 2016, but dropped in 2020.
With implied probability splits of 51% and 49%, the market suggests you may as well flip a coin.
However, we can expect the states to be correlated. Since 2008, all three of these states have voted for the candidate that won the overall election.
