Tuesday Update
11:50 a.m. ET: The 2020 Democratic Primary marches on with six states voting in primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington.
With 352 delegates up for grabs — or 8.8% of the 3,979 total — Joe Biden will look to extend his lead (664) over Bernie Sanders. The former Vice President also enters the day leading the popular vote.
Biden, who is favored to win the most delegates in all six states on Tuesday, is unsurprisingly the heavy favorite to secure the nomination at -1000 odds. Below are the latest Democratic primary odds via European sportsbook Betfair, complete with the vig-free implied probabilities.
Latest 2020 Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -1000 means that if you bet $1,000 on Joe Biden, you’d profit $100 if he wins. Whereas if you bet $100 on Bernie Sanders at +800 odds, you’d profit $800.
- Joe Biden: -1000, 83.6% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +800, 10.2% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +2200, 4.0% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +5000, 1.8% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +25000, 0.4% implied probability
Thursday Update
Thursday morning, the Democratic primary field narrowed again. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren ended her campaign after struggling through the first four states and Super Tuesday.
That effectively makes this a two-man race between former VP Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders; former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg all dropped out as well this week.
Interestingly, Warren's absence hasn't really changed the betting market for the Democratic primary race. Biden moved from a -700 favorite (bet $700 to win $100) to -900, but his implied probability (with juice removed) moved from 80.6% to just 80.9%.
Likewise, Sanders moved from +600 to +550, and his implied probability moved from 13.2% to 13.8% following the Warren news.
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Warren has yet to endorse a candidate today. Sanders seems like the likely choice given the progressive goals they share, but she could surprise; Warren endorsed Hillary Clinton over Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary.
As of today, politics site FiveThirtyEight's model still has a contested convention — no candidate receiving a majority (50%) of delegates — as the most likely outcome at 61%. It has Biden at 31% to receive a majority, while Sanders has dropped all the way down to 8%.
It does have Biden as the most likely candidate to win a plurality of delegates at 65%, although that number is obviously lower than the betting market. It's more bullish on Sanders' chances to rally at 34%, although note that its model will change as more polling comes out following Super Tuesday and the other candidates dropping out.
See the full 2020 Democratic primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -900 means that if you bet $900 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +550 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $550.
- Joe Biden: -900, 80.9% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +550, 13.8% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +2500, 3.4% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +6600, 1.3% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.4% implied probability
