Well, the Democratic primary race changed quickly.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was a clear favorite yesterday: He leads the field entering Super Tuesday in delegates, and he looked to be a favorite to win a majority today. But former VP Joe Biden has seen a massive surge in odds overnight and early Tuesday morning.
Biden is now the odds-on favorite to win the nomination at -150 odds (bet $150 to win $100), giving him a juice-free implied probability of 54.9%. Sanders is now second in the betting market at +188 odds (31.9%).
It's unclear what caused this surge for Biden: He overperformed polls this weekend in South Carolina, which likely helped, but perhaps more important was Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out over the last two days and endorsing him yesterday at a Texas campaign rally.
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FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver agrees it's likely a combination of those two factors:
One way to look at it: Biden basically got an Iowa-scale bounce out of South Carolina + the winnowing/endorsements. https://t.co/ThzMkc45Lo
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 3, 2020
The race is now down to just five candidates: Biden, Sanders, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard. Bloomberg was the surging candidate just a few weeks ago, but given Biden's performance in South Carolina and recent endorsements, he's fallen way back in the race — likely helping Biden on Super Tuesday even more.
The question now is whether this becomes a two-man race between Sanders and Biden after today or whether the other candidates stay in. Sanders would presumably get a sizable bump if Elizabeth Warren dropped out and endorsed him, thus coalescing the race into one moderate vs. one progressive.
See the full 2020 Democratic primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -150 means that if you bet $150 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +188 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $188.
- Joe Biden: -150, 54.9% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +188, 31.9% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1400, 6.1% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +2500, 3.5% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +4000, 2.2% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.5% implied probability
