Wisconsin is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Kamala Harris is favored to take it home. She'll likely need to win at least two of the three "blue wall" states — the normally Democratic Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 — to win the presidency.
Wisconsin Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% | 59% |
| BetMGM | 42% | 58% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Harris holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
Wisconsin Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Harris +0.7%, Harris 55% to win
- Split Ticket: Harris +1.3, Harris 57% to win
- 24cast: Harris +2.8%, Harris 73% to win
Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by a razor thin 0.63% margin, or just 20,682 votes. As of Sunday morning, early voting has made up 44.8% of the 2020 total turnout. However, in the city of Milwaukee, a Democrat stronghold, only 39% of the 2020 turnout has voted early in 2024.
That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given the likely shift of some Democratic voters back to election day voting after the 2020 pandemic, but it’s certainly not at a convincing enough level to take an early stand one way or the other.
Verdict: Pass
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Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
