The European soccer calendar rolls on with a full slate of mid-week La Liga and Serie A matches. While there aren't many great matches on the slate, that doesn't mean there isn't betting value in some of these matches.
If you'd like to see my projections for every single match, you can find them here.
| Cadiz Odds | +155 |
| Rayo Vallecano Odds | -190 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Total (Over / Under) | 2.5 +137 / -175 |
Should Cadiz really be a favorite here?
Rayo Vallecano are a very interesting case because they lost their manager Amdoni Iraola to Bournemouth, but this team has not skipped a beat. Former Elche and Girona manager Francisco Rodríguez took over, bringing a very different style than Iraola. His Elche team that got relegated played out of a 4-4-2 and was very passive, unlike Iraola's high-pressing style that allowed them to lead La Liga in PPDA.
Through six matches they are still playing the same style and pressing with the same intensity they did under Iraola. They have a PPDA of 10.1 and have forced the fifth-most high turnovers. They've had one bad performance where they conceded seven goals to Atletico Madrid. If you remove that match they have +3.6 xGD in their other five matches. We have to remember this is the same Vallecano team. They didn't sell any of their key players, rather they just changed the manager.
Cadiz are a relegation team that has enjoyed a better start to the season than they deserve. They have a -2.9 xG differential through six matches and in this specific matchup they are going to struggle. Cadiz are dead last in Offensive PPDA, meaning they are the worst team in La Liga at playing through pressure.
Defensively, they play a passive 4-4-2 low block and are allowing the most shots in La Liga. This is the same club that allowed 1.63 xG per 90 minutes last season and didn't make any upgrades to their defense.
This is a simple projection edge for me. I have Vallecano projected as a road favorite, so I like the value on them with a plus-money draw no bet.
Pick: Rayo Vallecano – Draw No Bet (+105 via bet365)
| Frosinone Odds | +275 |
| Molde Odds | +106 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Total (Over / Under) | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
He has a ton of experience managing in Italian football, previously being in charge of a ton of top flight clubs including Roma for a two year period. He sets them up in a 4-3-3, but has them set up to be a deadly counterattacking team. Frosinone have the third-fewest final third entries and progressive passes and dribble, but he has created the sixth-most non-penalty expected goals in Serie A. They haven't played a cupcake schedule either, having already played Napoli and Atalanta.
Frosinone had a ton of success in Serie B last season, putting up a +0.62 xGD per 90 minutes, while also averaging 1.86 xG per 90 minutes. Defensively they are allowing a ton of shots so far this season, but they are facing a Fiorentina offense that has been very poor this season.
Fiorentina's offense has been pretty drastically overperforming this season. They have scored 11 goals from 4.3 xG, so regression is going to hit them hard very soon. They obviously lost their centerpiece in the middle of the pitch to stop transitional teams in Sofyan Amrabat and don't have a stable replacement for him.
They also are dealing with some injuries coming into this match, as their usual starting right back Dodô is injured along with their best attacking threat Nicolás González, who led them in shots and created the third most expected goals on the team last year.
Due to their Europa Conference League duties, this will be Fiorentina's third straight road match in less than a week, so it's not the best of spots for them, especially as a road favorite.
I only have Fiorentina projected as a +152 road favorite, so I like the value on Frosinone +0.5 at -108.
