We're more than halftway through the 2018-19 Premier League season, so let's re-group and take a look at updated futures and trends.
League Standings
Liverpool holds a four-point lead over Manchester City after 21 games. The two title contenders don't play each other again after City's 2-1 victory last week. Tottenham are six points off the pace and still have a game against both Liverpool and City.
Title Odds
- Manchester City were massive -350 favorites in mid-November, but a couple shock losses in December made the title race very interesting.
- Liverpool were +400 in the preseason and +425 in November, but are now the odds-on favorites (-125) to win the title.
- Liverpool did reach as high as -175 before losing at Manchester City, 2-1, on January 3rd. That loss dropped Liverpool's odds from -175 to -125 as they could have gone 10 points clear at the top of the league table.
- I grabbed Man City (+175) to win the league at their highest odds, and will consider betting Liverpool if they happen to be plus-money again.
Relegation Odds
- Huddersfield (-1200) are nearly a lock to be relegated as they're eight points away from the safety zone.
- Fulham are four points from safety, although oddsmakers feel a lot better about their chances to stay in the EPL.
- Burnley (-130) and Cardiff (-125) have >50% chance of being relegated, but both are currently safe in the standings. I have a preseason wager on Burnley (+400), so I'll be rooting for Cardiff the remainder of the season.
Season Trends
- Road teams have been hot since the beginning of December and are now +7.58 units on the season.
- Betting on every draw has resulted in a loss of 51.73 units.
- Home teams have won 93 of 210 matches for -9.64 units overall.
- In 2017-18, home teams earned +12 units while road teams were historically bad (-60 units).
Most/Least Profitable Clubs
Leicester City +18.12 units
Crystal Palace +11.84 units
Tottenham +8.6 units
Fulham -13.89 units
Huddersfield -11.15 units
Southampton -10.50 units
- Leicester City and Crystal Palace have both picked up multiple victories as big underdogs to skew these results.
- Tottenham are almost always favored so their units earned will naturally be smaller.
- Fulham, Huddersfield and Southampton have combined to lose bettors more than 35 units on the season (8 wins in 63 matches).
