Manager Sam Dyche has helped Burnley stave off relegation the past five Premier League seasons despite a considerable dearth in raw talent relative to his competitors.
And yet, bettors still don't have his back entering the 2021-2022 Premier League campaign. Burnley has the highest total ticket percentage (22.9%) to be relegated at BetMGM out of England's top flight.
That's despite the fact Burnley has had no substantial transfers out this offseason besides center back Ben Gibson, who was already on loan at Norwich City and only suited up once for the Clarets. They've made one transfer in at around $15 million, landing former Stoke City center back Nathan Collins, who put up two serviceable seasons in Staffordshire.
By and large, Burnley's roster will remain just about the same as it has been the last two seasons, which makes the public position even more interesting.
Newly promoted Norwich City, Watford and Brentford all boast equally shaky rosters — and don't have the pedigree to show for it — but collectively make up roughly 25% of the total bets, compared to Burnley's nearly 23 percent.
That said, a lot of those figures boil down to pure value. While Norwich (-110), Watford (+100) and Brentford (+125) have limited upside over a long, 38-game campaign, patrons at BetMGM saw value on Burnley's line at +220 odds.
That's evident when comparing Burnley's total ticket percentage to its total money percentage (more than 9%), which shows bettors are taking low-money fliers on the Clarets to finally bow out after six EPL seasons.
2021-22 Premier League Relegation Odds, Ticket Percentage
Odds, data according to BetMGM as of Aug. 10
| Team | Odds | Total Ticket % |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | +220 | 22.9% |
| Crystal Palace | +160 | 20% |
| Brentford | +125 | 14.3% |
| Wolves | +500 | 14.3% |
| Southampton | +400 | 11.4% |
| Norwich City | -110 | 5.7% |
| Arsenal | +4000 | 5.7% |
| Watford | +100 | 2.9% |
| Newcastle United | +275 | 2.9% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | +550 | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | +600 | 0.0% |
| West Ham United | +800 | 0.0% |
| Leeds United | +800 | 0.0% |
| Everton | +2000 | 0.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | +5000 | 0.0% |
| Leicester City | +5000 | 0.0% |
Burnley was 11 points above the relegation zone last season, but did finish 17th in the league standings.
Crystal Palace has the second-most bets and third-most money at BetMGM on it to be relegated. The East London side lost three everyday starters in Andros Townsend, Patrick van Aanholt and Gary Cahill. In return, the Eagles received potential wunderkind Conor Gallagher on loan from Chelsea, along with center back Marc Guehi, center back Joachim Andersen and No. 10 Michael Olise for a combined total of around $46 million.
Bettors are taking the value here as well, even though Palace (+160) has made perhaps the most robust offseason improvements out of the clubs in the relegation zone.
Upstart and analytically-minded Brentford hold the most money on it to be relegated at more than 35 percent. That's despite a striker up top in Ivan Toney, who scored 33 goals in 48 appearances last season (albeit, in the second division), and the acquisitions of two solid 23-year-olds in Celtic's Kristoffer Ajer and Midtjylland's Frank Onyeka.
The Bees' only notable transfer out was former starting right-back Henrik Dalsgaard. Manager Thomas Frank and company rebounded admirably last season after losing top goalscorers Ollie Watkins and Saïd Benrahma to finish third in the Championship.
Brentford finished unbeaten through its last 12 regular-season games before beating Bournemouth on aggregate in the playoff semifinals, then Swansea City in the final to achieve promotion for the first time since 1947.
2022 Premier League Odds, Total Money Percentage
Odds, data according to BetMGM as of Aug. 10
| Team | Odds | Total Money % |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | +125 | 35.4% |
| Norwich City | -110 | 21.2% |
| Crystal Palace | +160 | 18.4% |
| Burnley | +220 | 9.6% |
| Wolves | +500 | 6.1% |
| Arsenal | +4000 | 3.5% |
| Southampton | +4000 | 2.8% |
| Watford | +100 | 2.0% |
| Newcastle | +275 | 1.0% |
| Brighton | +550 | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | +600 | 0.0% |
| West Ham | +800 | 0.0% |
| Leeds | +800 | 0.0% |
| Everton | +2000 | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | +5000 | 0.0% |
| Leicester | +5000 | 0.0% |
Norwich City have the shortest odds to be relegated at -110 thanks to the losses of their best player, winger Emi Buendia, and arguably their best midfielder in Oliver Skipp. Their other talented midfielder Todd Cantwell has been the subject of countless transfer rumors throughout the summer.
Their only notable transfer in has been wunderkind Billy Gilmour, who is on loan and will replace Skipp in the midfield. Winger Milot Rashica was their top-money transfer at around $12 million but he only scored three goals over 26 appearances for Werder Bremen, who were relegated from the Bundesliga.
Norwich also acquired American striker Josh Sargent from Bundesliga side Werder Bremen for roughly $10 million. Sargent scored just five goals in 32 appearances last season.
If you're not afraid of juice — and waiting nine months for a roughly 91% return on investment — Norwich at -110 seems like the safest wager out of all these options. That play has just 5.7% of the total money at BetMGM, but 21.2% of the total money.
Funny enough, Arsenal has the same amount of tickets as Norwich does. I had to throw that in there.
