There are plenty of futures markets to bet in the Premier League besides who's going to win the title. The race for top four, top six, relegation, top half/bottom half finish, points totals and more are all incredibly exciting futures to follow during the nine-month long season.
Here I will be analyzing team-specific futures for many different markets.
Read on for my 2024 Premier League best bets and predictions.
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Premier League Best Bets: Ipswich Town to be Relegated (-120 via bet365)
Everyone needs to take a lesson from what happened to Burnley last season. Vincent Kompany came in playing a modern build out of the back and an aggressive high pressing system, which turned out to be a complete disaster. He actually had to abandon that system in November after their horrific start and play a 4-4-2 with a team that wasn't equipped physically to do so.
Everyone in the Premier League presses or plays a mid-to-high block now, so to think Ipswich are going to roll into the Premier League with a squad with the talent level of last year's Luton Town club and be successful is incredibly naive.
The biggest problem for Ipswich is their out of possession approach. They're incredibly aggressive with their high pressing, finishing first in the Championship in PPDA and second in high turnovers.
You cannot press like that at the bottom of the Premier League table and expect it to be sustainable or successful. Luton Town was forced into pressing aggressively over the second half of the season and finished the year with the second-worst expected goal differential.
The reason teams like Wolves, Everton, Fulham and Nottingham Forest have been able to survive relegation is because they're above average defensive teams playing in a passive defensive block and defending their penalty area.
Wolves had the worst xGD over the second half of the season last year, but was the best team in the Premier League in terms of shots block and cross completion percentage allowed.
Ipswich was an average at best box defending team in the Championship last year and they got away with it because of how much they overperformed offensively and how much they controlled the ball.
Ipswich scored 92 goals off of 74 expected goals, which is eerily similar to the offensive overperformance that Burnley had in the Championship two years ago. They also controlled 53% possession on average in the Championship.
The biggest question mark is: how are they going to be able to cope with not only holding less than 50% but often times under 40% and expect to be successful if they primarily want to build out of the back?
The reason this line is so low is because there are potential points deductions coming for Leicester City, Everton and Nottingham Forest. Even if Everton and Forest get points deductions, they're 15-to-20 points better than Ipswich.
So, I love the value on Ipswich to be relegated at -120.
All Promoted Teams to be Relegated (+500 via bet365)
With all three newly-promoted teams going down, I'm not sure people have truly grasped how much of a financial impact that has. We all know that the Premier League money that's distributed in a manner of the longer you stay in the Premier League the more money you can earn.
Leicester and Southampton have an edge on Ipswich financially because they were Premier League mainstays for over a decade before getting sent down, so in theory, they're in a better position financially to spend money than Ipswich.
In Leicester’s case, they're awaiting the Premier League’s decision in terms of points deductions for breaches during the 2022-23 season in which they were relegated. It’s rumored that it’s going to be the most severe penalty ever given and be in the 10-to-15 point range, which would instantly put them at a massive disadvantage.
There is also the aspect of completely switching their tactical system from Enzo Maresca’s possession-dominant build out of the back style to Steve Cooper’s 3-5-2 direct counter attacking football. So, unfortunately the deck is severely stacked against Leicester.
As mentioned above, Kieran McKenna’s system is one that raises the ceiling for Ipswich Town, but making the transition to the Premier League — where everyone is pressing and every team is really good at playing through or over the top of pressure — really lowers their floor.
As far as Southampton is concerned, Russell Martin has very similar tactics to that of Pep Guardiola in terms of being a possession dominant team that only builds out of the back and relies on passing combinations to play through pressure.
Southampton led the Championship in short passes completed, which is great, but against elite pressing teams that isn’t going to work. So, they're in the same boat as Ipswich, but they have more talent to be versatile in changing systems if needed, whereas Ipswich doesn’t have that luxury.
Also, Gavin Bazunu is still their starting goalkeeper. He was statistically the worst goalkeeper the Premier League has ever seen two years ago, having a -16.6 (-0.52 per 90) post shot xG +/-. In the Championship last year, he wasn't any better at -11.6 for the season.
Teams like Nottingham Forest and Brentford struggled last year because of bad goalkeeping play, and if Martin’s system flops and they have one of the worst goalkeepers, that's a really bad mixture.
The teams at the bottom of the table like Fulham, Wolves, Everton, Brentford and Nottingham Forest all have the same things in common. 1) They've already put significant investment into their squads to the level of the Premier League and 2) Are above average teams defending in their defensive blocks, which is something both Southampton and Ipswich at this current time are not.
So, I love the value on all three newly-promoted teams to go down at +500.
Premier League Picks: Newcastle Top 4 (+200 via bet365) & Top 6 (-120 via bet365)
Newcastle went through a really rough period in the middle of last season when they were dealing with a ton of injuries and Eddie Howe couldn’t implement his high pressing system. They switched out of possession for a while to a 4-5-1 midblock, which ended up being a complete disaster.
Then Howe went with an incredibly aggressive press with their slow back line, which also wasn’t really that successful.
They hit a real low point in late December and January, losing four straight matches to Luton Town, Liverpool (where they conceded a Premier League record seven expected goals), Nottingham Forest and Manchester City. From January 30 until the end of the season, Newcastle had a +11.5 xGD, which was fourth-best in the Premier League during that time frame.
What Newcastle has is an elite offense that can propel them up the table, as we saw two years ago. In their final nine matches last season, they created a whopping 25 expected goals and almost finished inside the top six.
I think we forget that Newcatle spent most of the season playing without Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, Sven Botman and Nick Pope, who are four really crucial players to their system. Tonali is going to return from suspension on August 27 and Boteman is going to return at the beginning of October.
Newcastle also went out and grabbed Lloyd Kelly from Bournemouth, which is a really good signing from a club that played a similar out-of-possession system under Andoni Iraola.
We saw how good Newcastle was two years ago when they didn’t have European obligations and could focus on playing one match a week. Howe’s high pressing system only works if Newcastle can impose their physicality and intensity over their opponents.
Playing multiple matches every single week with an injury riddled squad hampered his ability to play the way they wanted. Since they aren't playing in Europe, they can once again solely focus on the Premier League, which will be very beneficial to their chances of propelling up the table.
There's also some rumors that Newcastle may be signing Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace, which would only make their defense even better.
Brentford Over 44 Points (+130 Via bet365), Top Half Finish (+400 Via bet365) & Season Handicap +42 (+1500 Via bet365)
Brentford went through historic levels of underperformance and bad luck last year, which kept them in the bottom half of the table. They went through a point in the middle of the season where they had only picked up nine points in an 18 match period and still finished with 39 points on the season.
In the end, Brentford had a +2.2 xGD and had 52.9 expected points.
We know who Brentford is and they aren’t changing under Thomas Frank. They're going to play 3-5-2 direct counter attacking football when they're underdogs and play 4-3-3 attacking, build-out-of-the-back football when they're favorites. That versatility makes them such a great team.
The story of their season in 2023-24 was not only bad variance, but also injuries. Wingbacks are so crucial in a 3-5-2 system because often times teams like Brentford aren't able to play through the middle of the pitch, so they have to rely on dominating the wide areas and creating chances off of crosses.
Both of their starting fullbacks — Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry — were injured for the entire season, which really handcuffed Brentford from reaching their full potential.
You combine that with Bryan Mbeumo missing significant time, Ivan Toney being suspended for over half of the season and Kevin Schade missing pretty much the entire year as well, and it’s pretty impressive that Brentford were able to get to 52.9 expected points.
Frank’s defensive structure allows Brentford to be one of the best teams in the Premier League at defending in a low defensive block. They’ve been doing it for years and are consistently in the top five in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.
In terms of transfer market activity, as of right now, Mbeumo and Toney aren’t going anywhere, as nobody is willing to pay Brentford’s asking price. So, it’s going to be the full strength Brentford team that finished ninth in the Premier League two years ago.
They also added Igor Thiago from Club Brugge, who's a really good transition attacker that gives Brentford a lot of depth. He scored 16 goals and had a 0.81 xG per 90 minutes, which is nothing to scoff at.
With Brentford achieving 52.9 expected points last year, you could make a pretty compelling argument that they should make a big leap this season with their full roster available and have a similar season to two years ago.
I'm betting on Brentford in three different ways. First, over 44 points on the season at +130, as I have them projected for 53.2 points, top half finish at +400, and season handicap winner +42 at 15/1.
Manchester United Under 64 points (-120 Via bet365)
What's going to drastically change for Manchester United this season? Sure you can make the argument that they had a lot of injuries last season, but as long as Erik ten Hag is in charge, they'll never overtake a lot of the teams around them.
Here is the main problem with Ten Hag. It’s not that he isn’t a good tactician or a good manager. He’s proven over many years at Ajax that he can manage a top club. It’s that he’s an extremist when it comes to his tactical plan.
You saw last year Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw were hurt for most of the season, and they were two of the most important players to Manchester United’s build up system.
Instead of sticking with his tactics or simply playing more conservative, Ten Hag swung his team to the other end of the spectrum and played basketball matches with every single team despite having a roster that wasn’t set up to do so.
They had relied on Casemiro two years ago to carry their entire midfield in terms of ball winning, but suddenly, he completely fell off a cliff and they had nothing.
They were pressing with their attackers, but their center backs and fullbacks weren't coming up to aid in the press, so once the first line of pressure was beaten, teams had open season to run at their back line. It’s why Manchester United conceded 660 shots and took 120 less shots than their opponents last season.
From the first couple of preseason matches, it’s pretty clear that their press is going to be more aggressive, but this is something that goes all the way back to Ralf Rangnick. The profile of players — like Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Scott McTominay, etc. aren't equipped to be elite out-of-possession pressers. So, that's why their press gets beat so often.
Once it does get beat, a lot of teams are putting five guys on the last line of defense, so Manchester United are already at a numerical disadvantage.
Not only that, but Manchester United was really poor offensively last year. They finished the Premier League season averaging only 1.34 npxG per 90 minutes and had the lowest amount of big scoring chances.
They finished the year with 60 points and a -1 expected goal differential, despite having -12.5 xGD and 44.4 expected points. It’s going to take a lot for them to achieve 65 points or more, especially in such a top-heavy Premier League.
Crystal Palace Top Half Finish (+137 Via bet365)
Over the final two months of the season, Crystal Palace was incredible under new manager Oliver Glasner.
The 3-2-5 build up system with the box midfield was sublime and they had maybe the best young midfielder in Adam Wharton conducting the entire thing. Glasner wants to play through the middle, which is a hard thing to do in the Premier League for a mid-table team, but they did so with loads of success.
From his appointment on February 20 until the end of the season, Glasner’s Crystal Palace had the fifth-best expected goal differential in the Premier League at +6.3 in 13 matches.
There's some transfer activity swirling for a lot of Palace’s key players. Michael Olise has already made his move to Bayern Munich, Guehi is rumored to be leaving for Newcastle and Eberechi Eze is also rumored to be leaving.
Even if that's case, they still have a better in-possession tactical system than anyone on the bottom half of the table.
One of the underrated aspects of Crystal Palace this year is they will have Cheick Doucouré — their best defensive midfielder — back from injury. Most of last season, they were relying on Will Hughes to be their main number six, and it just wasn’t that great.
Two years ago, Doucoure had 130 tackles + interceptions, which was sixth-most in the Premier League. He'll allow Wharton to play a more advanced role, which is going to make Crystal Palace so much better in possession.
Palace also made a signing that went way too far under the radar, bringing in Ismaila Sarr, who has loads of talent but has never been in a stable environment. He spent four years at Watford, who were cycling in three sometimes four managers a year, and then he played for three different managers at Marseille last year.
He has incredible pace and ball carrying ability to be a capable replacement for Olise, and he gives Crystal Palace another creative outlet other than Eze.
With how much potential Crystal Palace has, I'm not sure they should be plus money to finish in the top half of the table, so I like the value on them at +137.
