AC Milan vs Inter Milan Odds
AC Milan Odds | +220 |
Inter Milan Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+155 / -195) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-110 / -110) |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
We have a Milan derby in the Champions League semifinals as AC Milan take on Inter Milan over two legs at the San Siro.
AC Milan downed fellow Italian club Napoli in the quarterfinals to set up this showdown. They are still battling for a top four spot in the Serie A table, so it's been months ofhigh pressure football for Stefano Pioli's men. They have potentially been dealt a huge blow in this first leg, with their star Rafael Leao a doubt to play.
Inter have finally found their form in Serie A, winning four straight matches, including a crucial 2-0 win at Roma this weekend to move them into the top four. Inter have taken out two Portuguese clubs in Porto and Benfica to get here and now get to face their bitter rivals, who they've been the better side against in all three meetings this year.
AC Milan Fortunate With Prior Results
Inter have beaten AC Milan in two of their three meetings this season, but Inter have won the xG battle in all three of the matches. The problem that AC Milan need to force from Inter is something that teams like Roma and Lazio couldn’t accomplish. They need to be able to disrupt their build up play. So far through three meetings, AC Milan haven't really been able to solve that problem, as their PPDA has been above 10 in all three matches.
They faced Inter twice in a 18 day period and got beat pretty badly in both meetings. The second of those two meetings was especially bad as Milan got the field tilted on them at 77.2%, only had one penalty box shot and in fact did not register a shot until the 58th minute. However, for both meetings AC Milan wer without Theo Hernandez, so you have to take both results in context.
Inter 1 : 0 Milan
▪ xG: 0.75 – 0.15
▪ xThreat: 1.66 – 0.68
▪ Possession: 63.9% – 36.1%
▪ Field Tilt: 77.2% – 22.8%
▪ Def Line Height: 51.4 – 43.2#msbot_ita#serieapic.twitter.com/NnqSmdDWPD— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) February 5, 2023
AC Milan were also pretty fortunate that Napoli were without key players in both legs with Victor Osihmen missing the first leg and then Kim Min-Jae and Anguissa missing the second leg for Napoli.
Pioli's men did a great job of attacking in wide areas against Napoli, but Leao is a doubt to play in this match, and that is a massive blow. Laeo has been one of the best players in Italy and he means everything for Milan’s attack. This season, Laeo leads AC Milan in shots per 90 from the left wing position, has a 0.64 xG + xA per 90 minute rate and has the most progressive carries and progressive passes received for AC Milan.
AC Milan’s attack doesn’t have another player of his skill set to play the left wing position and they will be reliant on Olivier Giroud, Ismael Bennacer and Brahim Diaz to be their offensive threats against one of the best defenses in Italy.
Inter Milan Looking to Attack in Key Positions
Stylistically, Inter are a much different team than Napoli. They play out of a 3-5-2, looking to attack in wide areas and building up in transition. They showed how good they are as a build up team in their last few matches. beating two low block passive teams in Lazio and Roma, and then they showed how good of a transitional team they are against Benfica. There, they conceded over 55% possession in both matches, but still created 2.6 xG over the two legs.
They only held 35% possession in the Suppercoppa match on January 18th, but a lot of that had to do with Inter being up two goals inside the first 25 minutes. However, it still shows how good they are at defending a lead, as they’re able to easily drop five guys into the back line out of possession and in Serie A are only allowing 0.92 xG per 90 minutes. Additionally, Inter are only allowing 0.87 xG per 90 minutes from an even game state this season as well.
Inter typically like to build out of a back four with Nicolo Barrella dropping into the back line. From there Inter like to take advantage of teams that will close off the middle of the pitch by creating numerical advantages in wide areas. They are No. 1 in Serie A in crosses completed into the penalty area. In the two prior meetings with AC Milan they did a great job of attacking those wide areas, which led to 27 penalty box shots over the three meetings.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Pick
This is a bad matchup for AC Milan, who have been the worse side in all three meetings against Inter. Even looking at the underlying numbers in Serie A, Inter are at a +0.92 xGD per 90 minutes, while AC Milan are only at a +0.42 xGD per 90 minutes.
Not having Laeo potentially available takes away Milan's only lifeline, which means Inter will now be able to freely attack wide areas, without having to deal with a massive threat up the left wing in transitional opportunities.
I have Inter projected at +108 accounting for Leao being out. If he’s in I would have Inter at +132. Either way, Inter have shown they’ve been the better side in all three meetings this season and are in better form, so I like the value on them at +150.
