AC Milan vs Juventus Odds
| AC Milan Odds | +125 |
| Juventus Odds | +220 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -143 |
Juventus overcame a medley of key attacking injuries in their final game before the international break, beating inner-city rival Torino, 2-0. Inter and Napoli have the clear best underlying numbers and team strength in Serie A thus far, but the results on the pitch had AC Milan atop the table with Juventus in third just four points behind them entering this match.
Both clubs have the same problem — they have solid defensive numbers, but at times their overly conservative approach to matches leave them short on goals. Milan and Juventus do not have the same level of attacking firepower and striker talent that Napoli and Inter have, and that will certainly be on display in this match on Sunday.
It took Milan more than the 90 minutes to find a winner on the road against Genoa, and even that goal scored by American Christian Pulisic was mired in controversy over a potential handball. A look at the underlying numbers for these attacks suggest goals will be hard to come by.
Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for AC Milan vs. Juventus below.
AC Milan
Milan's attack is almost entirely reliant on the success and production of superstar wide forward Rafael Leao. His combinations with attacking left back Theo Hernandez up the left back often produces most of Milan's best attacking patterns. The problem for this match is that Hernandez is suspended, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek is also in doubt to play this match because of an adductor issue. Milan usually only attack with three players, but Hernandez and Loftus-Cheek were the best bet to join the attack and they'll miss their additions here.
The problem for Milan this year has been the auxiliary production. Milan have created the third-most expected goals thus far, but that drops to sixth when you consider only non-penalty xG created. They've gotten an unusually and unsustainably high number of penalties in the opening portion of the season to inflate some of their numbers.
They are second in progressive dribbles because Leao is so good with the ball at his feet, but they're outside the top four in both box entries and final third entries. Milan like to have possession of the ball, but they are an extremely conservative possession side. Stefano Pioli isn't going to commit many numbers forward to the attack, especially given the quality of opposition.
Milan also aren't going to press a ton to try to win the ball back, thus lowering the number of possessions in the match.
Juventus
One of my favorite metrics to look at when judging the quality of a defense is the average length of shot distance allowed. Both Juventus and Milan rank in the top five in the league. Juventus will concede a bunch of possession in their final third because the defense is so passive and doesn't press much to win the ball back.
Under Allegri, Juventus love to drop deep, concede space and protect the penalty area. Because they have an excellent shot stopper in goal, they're able to more easily get away with this. Wojciech Szczesny is one of the top shot stoppers in Europe, even in his advanced age. It's hard to beat him from long range and Juventus is the most efficient team in Serie A at preventing box entries thus far this season.
The biggest key for Juventus is the return of both Federico Chiesa and Dusan Vlahovic to the side. The market moved sharply toward the under once they were announced out against Torino, and they are the clear two best attackers in this side.
As a whole, Juventus have played a relatively weak schedule of opposing defenses and yet they rank sixth in NPxG per 90 and are outside the top four in box entries.
AC Milan vs Juventus
Pick & Prediction
It's in the DNA of both managers' styles to be conservative in possession, not press out of possession and play this out as a bit of a stalemate. As a result, you can just look at last season's numbers when the two teams played a 2-0 and a 1-0 game. There were less than 2 xG created in both.
An early goal can change everything, but if the midfielders aren't going to push forward into the penalty area, these two defenses are very solid and difficult to break down with both clubs just sending 2-3 attackers at them all game.
