Argentina vs Ecuador Odds, Argentina – Ecuador Prediction
| Argentina Odds | -215 |
| Ecuador Odds | +750 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+140o / -180u) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 9 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FOX |
| Odds as of Thursday evening via DraftKings | |
Argentina look to take another step toward defending their Copa America title when they take on Ecuador in the quarterfinals.
Argentina have been the most impressive team throughout the group stage and are well positioned to get to the final. They won all three of their group stage matches in dominant fashion and should be able to do the same here against Ecuador.
Ecuador barely scraped by in second place after drawing with Mexico in their final group stage match. They were not impressive during the group stage and have struggled every time they faced Argentina over the past few years, so this looks like a pretty tall mountain to climb.
Here is my Argentina vs Ecuador preview and pick.
Argentina Picks
Argentina have proven one thing so far in this tournament – nobody in the world is better at controlling matches. Canada scared them a few times in the opening match, but then they rounded out the group stage with two dominant performances against Chile and Peru, holding them to just nine combined shots and 0.2 xG.
What makes Argentina so difficult to play is how patient they are in possession. They know they can pass through a defensive block at a moment's notice or find overloads wherever they want them, so teams often times will play incredibly compact and passive against them to avoid giving them space through the middle. However, so far this tournament they have proven their best asset has been their ability to attack in transition. They opened up Chile and Canada time and time again when those teams decided to press high, so if Ecuador try the same, they are going to be in for a world of hurt.
The most underrated aspect of Argentina is their defense, more specifically their transition defense. Because they consistently have a stranglehold on possession, an opponent's only option is to hit them with counterattacks. They have incredible ball winning in the middle of the pitch and a rock solid backline.
Ecuador Picks
Ecuador have not been very impressive throughout this tournament. They came in as one of the co-favorites to win Group B alongside Mexico, but they needed some late heroics and favorable calls going their way just to get to this point.
They are most likely going to play very passive in this match, sitting in their 5-3-2 and trying to man mark Argentina all over the pitch. They really struggled to defend them in this manner when they faced off in World Cup Qualifying, so you could see them go for a more zonal approach, as Argentina are incredibly good at manipulating low blocks and pulling defenders out of position.
When Ecuador do get a chance to attack, they will release their two fullbacks high up the pitch to try and create a chance via a cross or utilize their attacking midfielder Kendry Páez as the main creator moving around the pitch to create a wide overload.
The main problems for Ecuador have come in their attack and I really worry how they are going to create anything of value here against Argentina. Coming into the tournament, they only averaged 0.81 xG per 90 minutes during World Cup Qualification and outside of their 3-1 win against Jamaica, they only created one expected goal total against Venezuela and Mexico.
Argentina vs. Ecuador
Prediction
These two faced eachother in World Cup Qualifying in 2023 and Argentina dominated the match. They won it 1-0, won the xG battle 2.3 to 0.1 and held Ecuador to just three shots. What was even more telling about that match is Ecuador had five counterattack opportunities and were not able to register a single shot off those transition opportunities.
With Copa America knockout matches having no extra time and going straight to penalty kicks, Ecuador will have even more incentive to sit deep in their 5-3-2 and try to deny Argentina of high quality chances. However, given how the World Cup Qualifying match went, I am not sure they are going to be able to keep them out for a full 90 minutes.
So, I like the value on Argentina to win nil at -110.
Pick: Argentina Win to Nil (-110 via bet365)
