Argentina vs Peru Preview: Argentina – Peru Odds, Picks & Predictions

Argentina vs Peru Odds, Argentina – Peru Picks

Argentina have already wrapped up the top spot in Group A and are likely to rotate their lineup when they face a Peru team needing a victory to keep its slim prospects of advancement alive on Saturday night.

Lionel Messi is confirmed out for the contest, and several other changes could be coming after the Albiceleste had to labor hard for their dramatic 1-0 victory over Chile on Tuesday night on Lautaro Martinez's late winner.

Peru went down to 10 men through Miguel Araujo's 59th-minute red card before conceding Jonathan David's match-winner in their 1-0 defeat to Canada. They must now beat Argentina and score multiple goals to have a chance to advance.

Messi was the only goal scorer when Argentina won these sides' last meeting 2-0 in an October World Cup Qualifier in Lima.

Here is my Argentina vs Peru preview.

Argentina Picks

Messi may be out of the lineup, but this is one of the most well-rounded Argentina squads of his career and, on paper, has the pieces to make up for his short absence.

Exhibit A is Lautaro Martinez, who has scored in back-to-back games despite coming off the subs bench in each game, and entered Friday as one of four players tied atop the tournament Golden Boot race with two goals.

And instead of rotating his two strikers, one option for manager Lionel Scaloni is to start Inter Milan's Martinez and Manchester City's Julian Alvarez together. While they are both center forwards naturally, Alvarez in particular has experience playing wide or as a second striker when he's on the field at the same time as Erling Haaland at City.

There is one other wildcard: Scaloni won't be on the touchline after CONMEBOL announced both he and Chile manager Ricardo Gareca were both suspended one match for their teams' time-wasting at halftime of Tuesday's 1-0 Argentina win.

Peru Picks

All you really need to know about Peru's approach to this tournament is that three of its players entered Friday in the competition's top 11 in fouls committed, and that two of them are the team's starting strikers, Edison Flores and Gianluca Lapadula.

In terms of attacking, Lapadula has offered more of a genuine threat, though it's an exceedingly low bar for a squad that entered this tournament having scored only once in its six South American qualifiers. The 34-year old has seven shots and three on target through two games, but only 0.5 xG generated through all those chances.

As a team, Peru have scored only once in their last nine competitive fixtures in all competitions, coming in their qualifying draw in November against Venezuela. The scorer was Yoshi Yotun, who is out of Peru's current squad because of knee surgery.

Argentina vs Peru

Prediction

We know Messi won't play. What we don't know is how seriously the rest of Argentina's contingent will take this match, but we have some suggestive evidence: The latter stages of 2022 CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying.

Under Scaloni, Argentina qualified for the 2022 World Cup in mid-November with four matches left to play. They picked up 10 points from those remaining four games.

That's enough of a statement of intention for me to believe Argentina are still the play here even if it's a complete second XI. And as you should always do with his version of Argentina, I'm tying it to under 3.5 goals at even money and implied 50% probability.

That wager has cashed in 61.4% or Argentina's competitive fixtures since Scaloni took over the program (27-of-44 games). And Peru's attacking woes plus Argentina's squad rotation add to the likelihood of a lower score.

Pick: Argentina ML and under 3.5 (+100 via ESPNBet)

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