Arsenal vs Everton Odds
Arsenal Odds | -320 |
Everton Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-118 / -104) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+140 / -180) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Arsenal look to get their revenge for their 1-0 loss at Goodison Park against Everton on Wednesday.
They maintained their two point lead at the top of the table with a 1-0 win at Leicester on Saturday. Arsenal have had a game in hand on Manchester City for some time now and this is now that game in hand. So, Arsenal can extend their lead at the top of the table to five points if they can get a win against Everton.
The Toffees suffered their second defeat under Sean Dyche, losing to Aston Villa on Saturday. That loss kept the Toffees in the relegation zone and they are now desperate for point. Everton were able to secure a historic 1-0 win over Arsenal in the last meeting, but it will be very difficult to do so again at the Emirates, especially without Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Arsenal Rounding Back Into Form at the Right Time
Arsenal had one of their most impressive wins of the season over Leicester on Saturday, as they held them to just one shot and 0.02 xG for the entirety of the match at the King Power Stadium.
Leicester City 0-1 Arsenal: Arsenal win a tricky game to extend their lead at the top to five points (for now). Leicester only attempted one shot all game. pic.twitter.com/QavhRCV1Xq
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) February 25, 2023
Now, they're in a situation going up against a mid-block that stifled them in the first meeting with Everton. So, what is going to change this time around? How can Arsenal improve off of only creating 0.7 xG? Here's how.
In the first meeting, Sean Dyche clogged up the middle of the pitch and didn't allow Arsenal to create their usual box overload in the middle with Zinchenko inverting along side Partey. That meant that Arsenal were forced to play the ball out wide to Martinelli and Saka, who were in a lot of 1-on-1 situations against the Everton fullbacks. Both of them had their worst games of the season, which meant that Arsenal couldn't penetrate the Everton penalty area.
Arsenal will likely create overloads with Xhaka and Odegaard on one side of the pitch to help free up space for Saka or Martinelli to penetrate the Everton penalty area.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not going to be available for Everton, which is massive not only for his goal scoring ability, but for his superiority in winning areal duals off of long balls and goal kicks. So, if Arsenal can retain the ball and not allow Everton to get going forward in transition, you are going to see a similar story of what happened to Everton against Liverpool, where they were unable to create anything and Liverpool created over 2 xG.
Arsenal have also been much better at home this season than on the road. The Gunners have only suffered one defeat, which was to Manchester City, and have a +13.9 xGD at home.
Everton Playing Well Under New Leadership
Everton undeservingly lost Aston Villa on Saturday, as the Toffees outshot Aston Villa 15 to 8 and created 1.6 xG, but were unable to find the back of the net.
The Toffees did such a good job in the first meeting of pressing Arsenal high and disrupting their build-up play.
I made a video today breaking down Everton's win over Arsenal this weekend. This is pure Dyche propaganda so be warned.pic.twitter.com/mJJEQyXlEn
— Jon Mackenzie (@Jon_Mackenzie) February 5, 2023
It was an incredible performance, but repeating it away from Goodison Park, where Everton have scored just six goals all season long, is a tall task for the Toffees. Neal Maupay playing up top instead of Calvert-Lewin means Everton are not going to win aerial duals off of goal kicks.
Everton will have to put in a ton of hard work trying to defend Arsenal all over the pitch and will have to be perfect once again defending in wide areas. There is one thing that happened against Liverpool that was a little troublesome for Sean Dyche and something Arsenal can do as well.
Liverpool used their center backs as ball carriers to break the first line of defense when Everton were sitting deep, which allowed more space in between the lines and in the middle of the pitch to exploit the Toffees. Arsenal certainly have capable ball carrying center backs in Gabriel and Saliba, so don't be surprised to see Arsenal create close to 2 xG in this match.
Arsenal vs Everton Pick
Everton can do a great job blocking off the middle of the pitch and not allowing Arsenal to create overloads, but they have to be perfect defending in wide areas and hope that Saka and Martinelli have one of their worst matches of the season again.
There is also the element of Everton not being able to win aerial duals via long balls without Calvert-Lewin on the pitch. If the Toffees aren't able to retain the ball and consistently have to stave off Arsenal's mounting pressure, it's difficult to see how they can repeat that sort performance they put in at Goodison Park.
I have Arsenal's spread projected at -1.92, so I love the value on the Gunners -1.5 at +100.
