At this point in the season, you might think Arsenal is the only candidate left to spoil Liverpool's seemingly imminent Premier League title.
With an 11-game unbeaten streak and renewed confidence after winning the North London Derby on Wednesday, the Gunners will try to keep it up when they host Aston Villa at 12:30 p.m. ET. Here is my Arsenal vs. Aston Villa prediction and Premier League odds for today's match.
Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Pick, EPL Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 2.5 -125o / -105u | +550 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -125 | 2.5 -125o / -105u | -205 |
- Arsenal vs. Aston Villa moneyline odds: Arsenal -205, Draw +350, Aston Villa +550
- Arsenal vs. Aston Villa over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -125, Under -105)
- Arsenal vs. Aston Villa pick: Arsenal moneyline
I am backing Arsenal to win and be the first team to score in the Arsenal vs. Aston Villa match.
Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal regained some pride this week after two straight cup failures. The Gunners came back to win 2-1 against Tottenham in the North London Derby and, at least in the Premier League, have an 11-game unbeaten streak (seven wins and four draws).
The injuries are piling up, especially among forwards, which forced manager Mikel Arteta to start Raheem Sterling against Tottenham after not giving him any minutes in December in the team's five league matches. Sterling could not provide a spark, but he'll get more opportunities since Arsenal will face another challenge next week when the Champions League resumes play. The Chelsea loan and former City and Liverpool star could show his worth in this dire situation, with Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus and Ethan Nwaneri out.
So, what can we expect? Despite the struggles, the Gunners are still chasing Liverpool and have become the best home team. They're the only unbeaten side (7-4-0) at its ground in the Premier League, so it is a big deal that today's match is at Emirates Stadium.
One stat that does not favor them is xG, and losing Saka and Jesus only increases their reliance on Kai Havertz. The Gunners have scored 41 goals, a nice amount, but their xG is 45.52 (+4.52). They are particularly wasteful late in the game, with their xG differential going up from minute 60 onward.
However, their dominance at home should prove true one more time.
Aston Villa Prediction
Aston Villa might not seem like much of a threat with a mediocre away record (4-1-5) and low production on the road as they haven't scored more than one goal as a visiting team since October 19th. They do not rank in the top five of any away category and have allowed 19 goals in 10 league road matches.
Surprisingly, their recent head-to-heads with Arsenal show that this is not such a lopsided affair as Villa won both matchups last season. In fact, per bettingexpert, the Gunners' last home defeat in the Premier League came at the hands of Aston Villa in April 2024.
Villa is in a better place now than last November, when they had a five-match winless streak. After that, Unai Emery's side has a 5-1-2 record (both losses on the road) and has won its past two matches against Leicester City and Everton.
What they haven't been able to improve is their effectiveness. They suffer the same ailment as Arsenal, with an xG of 38.76 for only 31 (+7.76) goals scored. Among the top-10 teams in the league, Arsenal and Villa have the second- and third-worst xG, trailing only Bournemouth's shocking +11.57 (43.57 xG, 32 goals). Given their away tendencies, if they are to beat Arsenal, they will need a superb Dibu Martinez performance in goal to keep the score low.
Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Despite the evenly matched history — two wins each — in their past four league matchups, this one is for Arsenal to take.
It's hard to look past Villa's scarce offense away from home, and the Gunners have held their ground at Emirates. Also, Arsenal is among the best set-piece teams, scoring 4.3% of the league strategy-plays goals (10 in total for the Gunners). In a close contest, it could be the key to a much-needed win.
