Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Odds, Pick
| Arsenal Odds | -138 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Arsenal and Bayern Munich meet for the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals with both having their sights set on advancing to the semis.
Arsenal are in amazing form at the moment and ended the weekend on top of the Premier League table after a resounding 3-0 win at Brighton. Arsenal needed penalties to get by Porto to get into the quarterfinals, but Bayern Munich might actually be a better matchup for the Gunners, who will be looking reach their first Champions League semifinal since 2009.
Bayern Munich are in a state of peril at the moment. The Bundesliga title race has been over for some time and the Bavarians are coming off a 3-2 loss over the weekend to Heidenheim. With Thomas Tuchel out at the end of the season, Bayern Munich have a bit of a lame duck feel to them and the Champions League is their last chance to win a trophy.
Read on for my Arsenal vs Bayern Munich pick.
Arsenal
Arsenal have become one of the most difficult teams to prepare for if you aren't a low block counterattacking style team. Because Arsenal start Kai Havertz up top they have multiple guys who can drop deep in build up to drag opposing defenders out of position to create space for their two wingers to either operate centrally or have a ton of space in 1 v 1 areas outside against the opposing fullback.
While a lot of people will point to their previous Champions League tie with Porto, where Arsenal only scored one goal over 210 minutes of play, Bayern Munich are a completely different opponent in how they play out of possession. Arsenal have shown the ability to build up with great success against high pressing teams because they are constantly giving themselves numerical advantages in build up, mainly because of Martin Ødegaard's ability to be a deep lying playmaker.
The reason that Arsenal are atop the Premier League though is because of their defense. Mikel Arteta has turned his side into the best out of possession team in the entire world and he has a squad that actually enjoys defending. Arsenal's hybrid press is incredibly devastating and it is going t0 give Bayern Munich a lot of problems.
The Gunners will often press in a man to man fashion with their fullbacks also coming up to aid in the press with the two center backs acting as center fielders to intercept any long balls that are played in their area. Nobody has figured out a good way to beat this plan from Arsenal because they have yet to allow an opponent to create over 1.5 expected goals against them. So, it doesn't matter if Bayern decide to utilize a lot of short passes or long balls up to Harry Kane – Arsenal are going to make life incredibly difficult on them.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich have a lot of problems at the moment, but maybe the most concerning thing heading into this match is how they have performed when they've had to play elite competition.
Let's take their most recent match against Bayer Leverkusen as an example. Xavi Alonso coaches one of the most possession-dominant teams in the world, but he recognized that Bayern Munich are vulnerable in transition defense and haven't been elite in their build up, so he decided to switch his team to a 5-3-2 out of possession and let Bayern Munich have the ball. The result was Bayern Munich got shut out and only created 0.6 expected goals on nine shots. Arsenal played a similar structure out of possession recently against Manchester City and held them under one expected goal, so Bayern are most likely going to have a really difficult time creating chances.
The biggest aspect of Bayern Munich this season is how bad they've been defending in transition and in rest defense. They're putting up good underlying numbers in the Bundesliga, but there have been a few instances where good offensive teams have punished them. In the first meeting against Galatasaray in Turkey, Bayern gave up 2.7 expected goals and what was troubling about that matchup is how easy it was for Galatasaray to attack and find space out wide. A pretty high majority of Arsenal's attacks come from out wide because that is where their two best attacking players are.
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
Prediction
These are two teams that need to have control to be successful. Arsenal recently played a match against Manchester City where they conceded control of the match and were rock solid defensively with their press and in rest defense. However, we haven't really seen Bayern play a team at Arsenal's level yet this season in terms of being able to control a match.
There have only been two matches where Bayern were held under 50% possession this year, the first meeting with Galatasaray where they gave up close to three expected goals and a win over Stuttgart when they were already up 3-0 around the hour mark.
So, if Bayern Munich are not able to have control of this match and have to defend for 60% or more of the match, that is going to be a major advantage for the Gunners.
I really like the value on Arsenal to win this first leg at -130.
