Arsenal vs Brighton Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -300 |
| Brighton Odds | +700 |
| Draw | +460 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Two clubs with a couple of important similarities — one far more desirable than the other — will get the third Premier League matchweek started Saturday.
Arsenal and Brighton have both begun the 2024-25 campaign with six points in two games, but have also been dealt nearly identical injury blows. Matt O'Riley, the Seagulls' newest midfield signing, picked up an ankle injury just nine minutes into his debut — an EFL Cup tie on Tuesday — that will keep him out for a couple of months. Then, on Wednesday, Arsenal officially unveiled Mikel Merino, but during a press conference on Friday, Mikel Arteta announced Merino fractured his shoulder in his first training session.
As a result, it's unlikely either Arteta or Fabian Hurzeler makes any significant changes to their respective starting lineups in this contets. How will that impact this early season top-of-the-table clash? Read my Arsenal vs Brighton preview and prediction to find out.
Arsenal
The North London outfit is coming off a massive 2-0 win against Aston Villa at Villa Park, a match it could have easily lost. Despite Arsenal having twice the Expected Threat (xT) as Villa and 65% Field Tilt, the Expected Goals (xG) numbers were more or less even. In other words, both sides executed their gameplans successfully — Arsenal dominating territory, Villa generating fewer, higher-quality opportunities. It just came down to taking chances, which the Gunners did.
Now, they get another tough fixture. Brighton has notoriously been a bogey game for Arsenal in recent years, but they did win both league meetings last season by an aggregate score of 5-0. To keep the good run of form against the Seagulls rolling, Arteta and Co. will likely be relying on an unchanged starting XI (possibly with Leandro Trossard taking Gabriel Martinelli's spot).
That's not just because they want to, but almost because they have to. The injuries to Merino, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Gabriel Jesus, along with the recent departures of Fabio Vieira and Eddie Nketiah, mean this is a fairly thin squad at the moment. It goes without saying though, the starting lineup is among the best on the planet, and limited depth doesn't change that.
Brighton
Hurzeler has settled in to life in the Premier League. After Hurzeler led St. Pauli to promotion into the German Bundesliga last campaign, Brighton chairman Tony Bloom targeted the 31-year-old to take over for the departing Roberto de Zerbi. A convincing 2-1 win over Manchester United at the Amex last weekend will have vindicated that decision for many — although anyone still doubting Bloom clearly hasn't learned their lesson.
In addition to hiring the youngest permanent manager in Premier League history, the Seagulls have gone on a spending rampage this summer. Brighton's net spend sits around -€200 million as they've brought in eight new faces to bolster an already solid squad. Hurzeler will certainly be spoiled when all of his players are fit. However, in the context of this game, O'Riley's aforementioned injury, along with minor issues for Mats Wieffer, Brajan Gruda and Ferdi Kadioglu might have made some of those decisions already for the German boss.
While Hurzeler's style was parroted as being comparable to his predecessor's, Brighton have generally appeared to be more risk-averse and have displayed inferior in-possession principles relative to what they did under de Zerbi. They've raised their floor and lowered their ceiling, which likely hurts when facing Manchester City and Arsenal.
Arsenal vs Brighton
Prediction
With Hurzeler so early into his Brighton tenure, it's hard to know exactly how he'll approach a game like this, especially when he hasn't really been able to integrate many of his new signings. Arteta will set out to control territory and showed an important development in his out-of-possession setup against Villa, a willingness to commit to a man-to-man press and not give the opponent a +1 to work with in build-up. That last detail has been Arsenal's downfall in games against teams like Villa and Brighton in the past, so utilizing the team's high physical level to make life even more difficult for opponents is absolutely the right move.
There's no doubt Arsenal are the better team. Plus, this game is taking place at the Emirates and the Gunners should be well-rested after having not played in a week, so Brighton will be up against it from the first whistle. As a result, going simple and just taking Arsenal's moneyline (-275) is a rational and reasonable move.
Pick: Arsenal Moneyline (-275, betMGM)
