Arsenal vs Burnley Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -490 |
| Burnley Odds | +1400 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -157 / +117 |
Arsenal look to grab all three points against Burnley at the Emirates to keep pace in the title race.
The Gunners rebounded from their hard fought 1-0 loss to Newcastle at St. James Park by throughly dominating Sevilla 2-0, controlling the match from start to finish. Mikel Arteta's team looks a lot different than the one last season and there are questions about how much better they actually are. A resounding win over a relegation club certainly would hush the doubters until after the international break.
Burnley are in a really bad spot right not. Vincent Kompany's side only has four points from their first 11 matches with the lone win coming against Luton Town. Burnley took the Championship by storm last season, playing beautiful high pressing, possession-based football, but so far that has not translated to the Premier League. If the results continue the way they are going, time may be running out on Kompany's tenure.
Find my full Arsenal vs Burnley prediction and preview below.
See if our latest bet365 promo code can get you bonus bets before you make your Arsenal vs Burnley wagers.
Arsenal
Arsenal looked much better offensively against Sevilla in the Champions League on Wednesday and actually made an emphasis on playing through the middle of the pitch, which led to the first goal.
Leandro Trossard was not going to miss from there. 😌
Perfect finish to Arsenal’s build-up play. 👏 pic.twitter.com/wvSturHDgR
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 8, 2023
While the matchup here against a bad high pressing team like Burnley is good for Arsenal's build up, they are going to be limited in terms of personnel. The Gunners will be without Gabriel Jesus, Emile Smith-Rowe and Thomas Partey, while Bakayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Eddie Nketiah are all questionable. If both Saka and Odegaard are not able to play, there goes Arsenal's two best attackers.
Arsenal are the best defensive team in the Premier League now. In their last three matches against Sheffield United, Newcastle and Sevilla they have allowed a total of 12 shots and 1.06 xG. If you take away the controversial Anthony Gordon goal in the Newcastle match, the Magpies would have only created 0.46 xG in the match. Additionally, Arsenal have been almost impenetrable at home this year, allowing only 4.6 xG in six home fixtures.
Burnley
How do Burnley score here?
Even though Vincent Kompany wants his team to play attractive football, building out of the back, overloading the last line of defense, Burnley has done nothing in attack this year and that continued against Crystal Palace at home this past weekend. The Clarets are only averaging 0.85 npxG per 90 minutes, which if it wasn’t for a historically bad Sheffield United team, would be the worst mark in the Premier League. It’s a slow build up too.
The Burnley attack has also been awful away from home this season. They’ve played Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Luton Town, Brentford, and Bournemouth, they have scored three goals from 4.3 expected in those five matches. The problem is they constantly keep turning the ball over or once they get the ball into the final third, they don’t have a great way of creating a high quality chances. They are taking the second fewest shots at 10.3 per 90 minutes and also has the fifth longest average shot distance, not a good combination.
Defensively there are question marks with Burnley. Kompany wants them to press with a front four to cause problems in the opponents build up play, but it hasn't been successful so far. Against Chelsea they tried to sit off and play a passive 4-1-4-1 out of possession, but that gave Chelsea too much time and space on the ball and they got ripped apart for four goals. So, Burnley is sort of stuck right now out of possession when they play elite build up teams like Arsenal.
Arsenal vs Burnley
Prediction
You have to ask the question, who are the teams that have given Arsenal trouble? The answer is teams that can be effective in transition or are good at high pressing and disrupting build up play. Burnley are neither of those. They may try to press high often, but they aren’t successful in doing so because they are 12th in PPDA and 14th in high turnovers, plus Burnley are a build out of the back, possession-style team, which will be perfect for Arsenal to press and cause problems when they are out of possession.
However, if Arsenal are limited in terms of the attackers they have available, then their chances of scoring, even if it is a good matchup, go down drastically.
I really don't know how Burnley are going to score here unless it's off of a fluke high turnover. They've been so bad at creating high quality chances and their build out of the back style is a nightmare matchup against one of the best out of possession teams in the world.
I have both teams to score – no projected at -184, so I like the value on the current line of -150.
