Arsenal vs Everton Predictions
| Arsenal Odds | -450 |
| Everton Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +700 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100 / -122 |
Everton's role in Arsenal's push to become Premier League champions goes far beyond the result of this match.
Of course, the biggest immediate impact stems from the final score in this contest, as anything but a win would condemn Arsenal to a second-place finish, regardless of what happens at the Etihad. But, if not for Mikel Arteta, who played for the Toffees for the better part of a decade, the Gunners wouldn't be in this position to begin with.
And who managed Arteta during his time on Merseyside? None other than David Moyes, who is taking charge of West Ham for the final time in their clash with Manchester City. His friendship with Arteta is well-documented, and the Arsenal boss will surely be hoping that relationship translates into a West Ham win or draw, as his team cannot win the league without City dropping points on this final matchday of the season.
This isn't the first time Arsenal have played Everton on the final day with something on the line. Two years ago, the Gunners were hunting Champions League qualification, and despite cruising past the Toffees 5-1 at the Emirates, they didn't get the help they needed elsewhere, finishing fifth. Unless there's a miracle in Manchester, which we've seen a few times in the last 10 or so years, it appears Arsenal's title charge will meet a similar fate.
Read on for my Arsenal vs Everton prediction and Premier League match preview.
Arsenal
As you've likely heard a million times already, this fixture is must-win for the North London outfit if they want to have a hope of finishing top of the pile. Even though they've rattled off five wins in a row, including away matches against Tottenham and Manchester United, they're still two points behind Manchester City entering the final weekend of the season.
By most metrics, Arsenal have been the best team in England across 37 games, and they'll have clear motivation to show why that's the case in this one. Even if it ultimately won't propel them past the Cityzens, a strong result here would still make a statement and send them into next season on a somewhat positive note.
As has been the case in recent weeks, there are virtually no fitness concerns for the Gunners, and there's even a chance Jurrien Timber could make his first appearance since the first game of the season after recovering from a knee injury. Arteta is likely to stick with the same starting XI as what he put out at Old Trafford, as he tends to avoid changing a winning team. That would mean Takehiro Tomiyasu continues at left back, Thomas Partey at the base of the midfield and a front three of Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka.
Everton
If not for the two teams fighting for the title, Everton would be on the best run of form in the league having taken 13 of a possible 15 points from their last five matches. Granted, that's a fixture list that's included four of the current bottom five, but it's still a strong finish to a difficult campaign for the Toffees.
After navigating points deductions and a bit of a relegation battle, Sean Dyche and co. currently sit 15th in the league table. If they hadn't been deducted eight points, they'd be 11th with a chance of finishing top-half, but far from both the European places and the drop, there's not much for Everton to play for in this one from a standings perspective.
Of course, they'll also want to continue their stellar run into the offseason and maybe even play spoiler to potential title celebrations. Recent history at Emirates Stadium — they've won there just once this century, and that was with no crowd — plus Arsenal's quality means that's going to an extraordinarily tough ask though.
Everton will sit in their 4-5-1 mid/deep block and use Calvert-Lewin as a launching point for attacking transitions, which will be far and few between, and try to grind out a positive result in a low-scoring affair. The first goal will be crucial, as it will either give the visitors license to sit even deeper and see out a 1-0 win or force them to open up as they chase an equalizer. If it's the latter, things could get especially tricky for them, as Arsenal will look to exploit the gaps that start to appear.
Arsenal vs Everton
Prediction
The only way goal difference will matter in determining the title is if Manchester City draw and Arsenal win here, but the Gunners will have a superior margin in that case no matter what, so they won't necessarily have to win by as much as possible. However, even if the trophy is out of reach, there will likely be a feel-good factor around the stadium and the home side will want to reward that — as well as capping off another season of progress — with an entertaining display.
Mental circumstances aside, Everton struggle to soak up pressure on the road, and once the Gunners find the breakthrough — which, needing a win, they almost certainly will — they'll have to open up a bit to find an equalizer. That will create gaps for their opponents to exploit, and the floodgates will open. As a result, at plus money I like Arsenal against the spread.
Pick: Arsenal -2.5 (+120)
