Let's take a moment to remember when, during the 2020/21 season, plenty of fans were trying to "replace" Arsenal with Leicester City in the "Big Six" of Premier League clubs. Given the "Big Six" has been defined by commercial revenue, supporting this argument with the fact the Foxes had finished twice in the top six above the Gunners, was rather stupid. And look how it's turned out.
Online "discourse" aside, from Leicester's title run in 2015/16 to their relegation in 2022/23, this has been a hotly contested fixture. Arsenal have won the bulk of the matches — especially at the end of that period – as the Foxes stumbled toward relegation — but there was always a sense the Midlands club could pull off an upset. Steve Cooper, now the Leicester boss, also caused the Gunners problems during his Nottingham Forest tenure. So, despite the obvious chasm between the two clubs currently, this won't be an easy game for the home side.
How will it play out? Read on for my Arsenal vs. Leicester City prediction.
Arsenal vs. Leicester City Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -650 | 3.5 -170o / +140u | -650 |
| Leicester City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +450 | 3.5 -170o / +140u | +1500 |
- Arsenal vs. Leicester City moneyline odds: Arsenal -650, Leicester City +1500, Draw +600
- Arsenal vs. Leicester City over/under: 3.5 goals (over -170, under +140)
- Arsenal vs. Leicester City pick: Leicester City Over 0.5 Goals +120
I am backing the Leicester City team total over 0.5 in Leicester City vs. Arsenal.
Arsenal Preview
After a wild week or so, it feels like Mikel Arteta and co. have finally had a chance to stop and catch their breath. Their 2-2 draw at Manchester City featured so many emotions, so a 5-1 win in their midweek EFL Cup tie against Bolton — where a lot of youngsters and reserves got significant playing time — should have served as a nice reset.
There's a chance David Raya misses out with a minor muscular issue suffered in that City fixture. No one has returned from injury, but Arteta did say Takehiro Tomiyasu and Mikel Merino are doing some training, which means they're close to completing their recoveries.
There should return to normalcy when it comes to Arsenal's tactical setup in this match. Barring any red cards, they won't be sitting off in a mid-block or deep block and they will have the lion's share of possession. Arteta will have to make some decisions regarding who starts along the front and back lines, but as always there's no doubting the Gunners' quality, and they should win this game no matter who is in the first XI.
Leicester City Preview
After getting promoted from the Championship, it was always going to be a tough campaign for the Foxes. That became even more apparent after the man who brought them up, Enzo Maresca, left to fill the Chelsea managerial opening in June. However, through five league matches, things haven't gone horribly for Leicester.
Cooper's men have drawn three and lost two, but only coming away with a point at Selhurst Park a fortnight ago was a bit of a disappointment, as they had led 2-0. Despite not currently sitting in the relegation zone, there have been murmurs of discontent emanating from the Leicester City fanbase. Needing a penalty shootout to get past League Two Walsall in the EFL Cup on Tuesday certainly didn't help matters.
Strategically, Cooper appears to be seeking a happy marriage between his counterattacking setup with Forest and the ball-dominant tactics Maresca implemented last season. So far, that's been an unsuccessful endeavor, as the players seem far less comfortable in possession, and have mainly relied on transitions to create and score goals. When Jamie Vardy is leading the line, that is technically always a viable strategy, but Leicester have the second-worst Expected Threat Differential in the Premier League, so that viability does come into question.
Arsenal vs. Leicester City Prediction
While Arsenal will likely win this match, I do like the value presented with the over on the Leicester team total. To me, it feels like Raya is trending toward not playing, and he's been arguably the best goalkeeper in the world this season. That would mean Neto would make his club debut in between the sticks. The drop-off in quality, along with any potential nerves that come with the circumstances, do weaken an otherwise strong Arsenal defense.
Additionally, the Gunners have a track record of conceding sloppy goals at home after accumulating a comfortable lead. It's likely this game heads toward a similar game state, so that makes this prop even more enticing.
Cooper and Vardy, as well as Leicester as a whole, have all had success capitalizing on attacking transitions in the past against Arsenal, so I like backing them to find the net at least once here at +120.
