Arsenal vs Liverpool Odds
| Arsenal Odds | +125 |
| Liverpool Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154o / +120u |
This is the third meeting in all competitions between Liverpool and Arsenal this season, all three in the last six weeks. Liverpool managed to win at Arsenal with rotated teams in the FA Cup and the two played out a stalemate 1-1 draw at Anfield in the Premier League in December.
Liverpool controlled the match and dictated the flow and pace of the game when at home by disrupting Arsenal’s build-up for the majority of the match. The Gunners' center backs were stellar in the match though, and Liverpool finished that match at home with less than one expected goal.
Arsenal generally prefers a slower paced and more controlled match. The league meeting was more open and transitional, which favors the Reds' talent and style preference. As the venue shifts to North London at The Emirates, I’d expect Arsenal to keep better control of the match and prevent Liverpool opportunities on the break.
Here is my Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction.
Arsenal
The Gunners have conceded just eight expected goals in total in 11 total matches at home this season. When they’ve faced fellow top sides, the Gunners have held Liverpool, Brighton, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Manchester City under one expected goal in every match. Even though Premier League goal scoring is way up league wide and the betting market still hasn't caught up to the surge, Arsenal is one of the few exceptions.
If you bet the over in every Premier League match this season, you'd be covering by an average of 0.41 goals per match with a 9.1% ROI. Liverpool and Arsenal are two of the noted exceptions to this trend. The Reds are actually the most profitable under team in the league, while Arsenal is in the top four.
The defensive metrics have slid league wide, but both Liverpool and Arsenal have been elite at even strength. Liverpool had Trent Alexander-Arnold, Darwin Núñez and Mohamed Salah available for the first matchup and still the Reds struggled to generate clear scoring opportunities. The Gunners rank second in expected threat, second in build-up completion rate allowed and first in big scoring chances conceded.
Arsenal didn't face a full strength Liverpool in the FA Cup, but the Reds barely managed a shot until after halftime. The Reds' attack hasn't been nearly as dominant away from Anfield, and now Liverpool will be shorthanded Sunday.
Liverpool
Liverpool is again without Salah, and while that didn’t matter in the dominant home win against Chelsea or road win at Bournemouth, his absence will matter here. The weak link in the Arsenal defense is left back Oleksandr Zinchenko, who Salah rinsed for Liverpool’s only goal in the first meeting. Alexander-Arnold played that pass over the top, and he hasn't played a full 90 in a few weeks as he recovers from an injury.
Diogo Jota enters this match in excellent form, but Liverpool’s press and attacking production isn’t nearly as dynamic away from home this season. The Reds have produced 30.9 xG in 11 home matches in the league, 2.8 per match. Their attacking production dips to 1.6 xG per match on their travels.
The key potential loss here for Liverpool is Núñez. Jurgen Klopp said the star forward, who is first in the entire Premier League in total attacking production metrics, per Opta, left in a walking boot Friday.
Núñez is elite at getting shots for himself and, more importantly, for others. Núñez has been critical in filling in the gaps in passing and creative production. He hit the post four times against Chelsea, but he also is tied for fourth in the Premier League in assists. Núñez had produced 3.8 xG, three goals and 23 total shots in the last four EPL matches. He also managed two assists against Fulham in the EFL Cup.
Arsenal vs Liverpool
Prediction
Nearly all of the Gunners' highest profile matches against fellow top teams have played out in a low event nature. Mikel Arteta's desire for as much control as possible has led to the Gunners' attacking output lagging behind the other top four teams. Arsenal is fifth in non-penalty xG and the team ranks in the bottom half in goals scored from open play.
The Gunners showed how efficient they can bet on set pieces, but this total is inflated at three given how dominant Arsenal has been defensively at home. The Gunners are correctly priced as a short home favorite, but the total is inflated and should be closer to a flat 2.5 on Sunday.
