League leaders Liverpool head to London for a massive match at the top of the table against Arsenal.
The Gunners suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday, losing 2-0 on the road at Bournemouth. Arsenal have been really unlucky to pick up three red cards in only eight matches so far this season, but they are only four points behind Liverpool in the table. So, three points here puts them right back into the title race.
The Arne Slot era at Liverpool could not be going any better right now. Liverpool beat RB Leipzig 1-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday, which means they have won every single away match since he's been in charge. The Reds' toughest test this season has been Chelsea and that was at home, so this will be a good barometer for how good they truly are.
Here is my full Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction and preview in this Premier League Sunday match.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +145 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -170 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
- Arsenal vs. Liverpool moneyline odds: Arsenal +140, Liverpool +190, Draw +240
- Arsenal vs. Liverpool over/under: 2.5 goals (over -115, under -105)
- Arsenal vs. Liverpool pick: Under 2.5
I am backing the Under 2.5 in Liverpool vs. Arsenal.
Arsenal Preview
It's pretty clear at this point that the way to shut down Arsenal's offense is sitting in a low defensive block with five guys or more across the back line. Arsenal typically will build up in a 3-2-5 trying to overload the last line of defense but also trying to create a box midfield to create a central overload. The other aspect of this type of build up is they are trying to get Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli into 1 v 1 situations against the opposing wingers. Saka has been particularly impressive this season, creating chances for his opponents. Saka has missed the last two matches due injury, but he has been upgraded to probable to play in this match.
Arsenal really aren't the type of team anymore that is desiring complete control. Instead, they are looking to control matches out of possession. That means completely limiting teams' chances and progression through all areas of the pitch. They can play a lot of different formations and will even at times play six guys across their back line to avoid getting overloaded. The Arsenal defensive numbers don't look as impressive as they did last season, but that is because of red cards. Arsenal have spent around 120 minutes this season playing down a man, but in 11 v 11 situations Arsenal are only allowing 0.81 xG per 90 minutes, which is the best mark in the Premier League.
The Gunners are going to be limited in this game because of injuries and suspensions. William Saliba is going to be out because of the red card against Bournemouth, which means Ben White is likely going to slide into the right center back role. He is very comfortable in that spot. Thomas Partey – or Jurrien Timber if he's healthy – will likely slot into the right back role, so Arsenal's defense shouldn't really see much of a drop off.
Liverpool Preview
Tactically, Liverpool under Arne Slot are very interesting right now, because not only are they playing much different than Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, but they are actually playing quite conservatively. Klopp's Liverpool were full go and full risk at all times because he believed that the reward of playing super aggressive both in and out of possession far outweighed the risks associated with it.
Arne Slot is valuing control, but that control isn't what most of us have become accustomed with managers like Pep Guardiola. Slot loves three man passing combinations to keep control of the ball, not necessarily try to progress it up the pitch. He also doesn't put a big value on controlling the middle of the pitch like a lot of other managers do. Instead, he will often have Liverpool building out in wide areas so that if they do lose the ball, it's more difficult for teams to hit them quickly in transition.
Liverpool also aren't afraid to play directly. In their last match against Chelsea the Blues decided to mark man to man across the pitch, so instead of trying to play short passes through their press, Slot had them sending quite a few long balls over the top because their forwards were in 1 v 1 situations with the opposing defender, which is how they were awarded a penalty to score their first goal.
The Reds also aren't pressing like they did under Klopp. Instead, Slot is having them play more conservative in a 4-2-4 mid block, trying to set central traps for teams to try and play through them middle, where they've been winning the ball at a high rate.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Prediction
These two teams aren't a whole lot different than each other because these are the two best defensive teams in the Premier League. Both are valuing more of a passive defensive approach, which has led to a lot of low scoring matches this season.
Both teams in 11 v 11 situations are allowing under one expected goal per 90 minutes and honestly I think you will see both teams try to play more direct. The problem with both teams trying to do that is both defenses have incredible center backs who are some of the best in the world at winning 1 v 1 duels.
Typically when we get these high stakes encounters it becomes a match of neither team wanting to make a mistake and both become more risk averse. This leads to low event matches. So, with that in mind, I like the value on the under.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Pick: Under 2.5 (-108 via BetRivers)
How to Watch Premier League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Emirates Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Sundy, October 27 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | USA Network |
