Arsenal vs Luton Town Predictions
| Arsenal Odds | -800 |
| Luton Town Odds | +1400 |
| Draw | +900 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -400 / +300 |
Arsenal look to keep pace with Liverpool and Manchester City in the title race when they host Luton Town at the Emirates.
Arsenal got a very well deserved draw against Manchester City over the weekend, but they fell two points behind Liverpool with that result. The Gunners are in a tricky spot with a road trip to Brighton coming up on the weekend and a Champions League match against Bayern Munich the following Tuesday. It's paramount for Arsenal not to slip up here at home or else their title hopes will be done.
Luton Town are firmly in the relegation fight and are desperate for points to avoid falling behind Everton and Nottingham Forest. The Hatters have entered a really difficult part of their schedule and also are going through an injury crisis to make things worse. They gave Arsenal everything they could handle in the previous meeting, losing 4-3, but they will without a doubt will be going for it Wednesday.
Find my Arsenal vs Luton Town prediction and Premier League match preview below.
Arsenal
These are the types of matches where Arsenal have been flexing their muscles. The way the Gunners build out of the back is really going to pull Luton Town out of position. Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard constantly are dropping deep in build up, which will do one of two things for Arsenal. Either Luton Town, who have been going man to man across the pitch, will have their center backs track them high up the pitch, which will leave space for Saka and Martinelli to make runs off the back line, or the center backs won't track them and allow Arsenal to have a numerical advantage in the first and second phase of build up.
Arsenal did concede three goals to Luton Town in the previous meeting, but those three goals came off of six shots and only 0.5 expected goals, so the chances of the Gunners conceding multiple goals again is really unlikely. Mainly because they are the best out of possession team in the world. Even though Arsenal's high press has been elite, Luton Town are going to send the ball long over top of the Arsenal's press. Mikel Arteta is well aware of this and has positioned his team to deal with those long balls at an elite level. Since match week 19, Arsenal are winning over 70% of second balls and are only allowing a 45.3% long ball completion rate, which is the second-best mark in the Premier League.
No single team has created over 1.5 expected goals against Arsenal because they are good in all phases, especially defending in transition. Arsenal are best in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate, so it's going to be really hard for Luton Town to create chances in this match.
Luton Town
Luton Town are in a very difficult position at the moment. With a load of injuries to the defensive midfield and center backs Rob Edwards is not left with many options for what they can do out of possession. What he has decided is to play super aggressive, go man to man and try to force high turnovers to create easy transition moments. It's allowed them to score quite a few goals, but it's allowed them to be way too open defensively.
Over their last nine matches since they decided to play more aggressively, they have conceded 22 expected goals and a boat load of big scoring chances. The problem with going man to man is when you play good build up and dribbling teams, if one man gets beat, the entire plan falls apart and allows a lot of space to the opponent.
Luton Town basically create chances from two different areas: crosses and set pieces. The Hatters have attempted the most crosses in the Premier League and have been utilizing a back post overload to great success. There are two problems in this match. First, Arsenal are basically starting four center backs with Ben White and Jakob Kiwior being outstanding defenders in wide areas, which makes it hard to get off an effective cross into the box. Secondly, Arsenal are No. 1 in the Premier League in xG per set piece allowed, so I am not really sure how Luton Town are going to threaten them.
Arsenal vs Luton Town
Prediction
Under different circumstances, Arsenal may look to shut to the game down when getting a lead, but with goal difference potentially playing a part in the title race, Arsenal have kept their foot on the throttle and have been running up the score on teams in the bottom half of the table. When playing with a lead this season, Arsenal have a +1.59 xGD per 90 minutes when playing with a lead this season, per understat.com.
Luton Town are going to have real difficulties creating chances in this match with Arsenal taking away the main two ways they create chances. The other problem with Luton Town is things tend to snowball when the fall behind because they have to chase the game. When playing from behind this season, Luton Town are allowing 2.17 xG per 90 minutes and it gets even worse when they are playing teams near the top of the table.
This one has big time potential to get out of hand, so I like the value on Arsenal -2.5 at -130.
Pick: Arsenal -2.5 (-130 via Caesars)
