Arsenal and PSG meet at the Emirates for the most high profile clash of match week 2.
Arsenal got two late goals against Leicester City over the weekend to stay hot in the Premier League title race. It's been an interesting few weeks for the Gunners, who played a ton of high profile matches but have gotten through them with flying colors. They drew Atalanta 0-0 in their opening Champions League match, so three points would be big for them on Tuesday.
PSG are on cruise control right now, but this will be their first big test of the season. They've won five of their first six matches in France and got a late winner against Girona to get all three points in their first Champions League match. The away form in Europe though for PSG has not been great, so this will be an incredibly difficult match for them.
Here is my Arsenal vs. PSG prediction.
Arsenal vs. PSG Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -140 | 2.5 -140o / +110u | -140 |
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +110 | 2.5 -140o / +110u | +390 |
- Arsenal vs. PSG moneyline odds: Arsenal -140, PSG +390, Draw +290
- Arsenal vs. PSG over/under: 2.5 goals (over -140, under +110)
- Arsenal vs. PSG pick: Arsenal ML
I am backing Arsenal ML in PSG vs. Arsenal.
Arsenal Preview
Arsenal's offense finally got back on track Saturday as they put up a whopping 4.4 expected goals against Leicester. It's been a bit of a struggle though offensively for most of the season. What has been happening is they are playing very deep defensively, which is sacrificing some of their ability to consistently create chances.
It's pretty clear at this point that the way to shut down Arsenal's offense is sitting in a low defensive block with five guys or more across the back line. Arsenal typically will build up in a 3-2-5 trying to overload the last line of defense but also trying to create a box midfield to create a central overload. The other aspect of this type of build up is they are trying to get Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli into 1 v 1 situations against the opposing wingers. Saka has been particularly impressive this season creating chances for his opponents. They were able to get Saka into these types of situations against Leicester and this was the effect:
Bukayo Saka is the first player in the last nine seasons at least to complete 8+ take-ons, create 8+ chances and have 8+ touches in the opp. box in a Premier League game. 🌶️ pic.twitter.com/s4IlcMtOHg
— Squawka (@Squawka) September 28, 2024
PSG are not known for sitting in a low defensive block, in fact Luis Enrique wants them to press opponents high up the pitch. That is a pretty big concern here against Arsenal because not only are the Gunners a really good build up team, but they also will have advantages on long balls and playing through the middle with PSG not having any elite ball stoppers in their midfield.
We haven't seen it too often this year, but when Arsenal press opponents high, they are one of the most effective teams in the world. Last season they forced the fourth-most high turnovers and also took the most shots off of those high turnovers. They will typically go man to man with their press with the aim of forcing the ball to one side of the pitch. With PSG wanting to build out via short passes, that gives Arsenal a real good shot at forcing PSG into turning the ball over in dangerous areas.
PSG Preview
PSG under Luis Enrique are a team that is going to build out of the back with a lot of short passes and this will be the first time that they have faced one of the better pressing teams in the Premier League. You probably aren’t going to see Arsenal all out press given the amount of matches that they’ve played over the past few weeks, but they will rely on pressing triggers and they will be effective at forcing high turnovers or forcing PSG into long balls where Arsenal do have a big advantage winning second balls.
They went to St. James Park early on in the Champions League last season and got hammered 4-1 by Newcastle. In that match, Newcastle allowed PSG to have over 70% field tilt, but they had four shots off of forced high turnovers and even with that extreme field tilt, PSG were only able to manage five shots inside the penalty area.
The other problem for PSG is I am not sure they have a striker they can put up top that can really threaten Arsenal in the box. Arsenal are most likely going to sit in a 5-4-1 or 4-4-2 and will double up Barcola and Dembele on the wings to neutralize the best part of PSG’s attack. That means PSG are going to have to try to beat Arsenal through the middle and they are flat out not going to be able to play short passes through Rice, Partey, Saliba and Gabriel. So, PSG may end up outshooting Arsenal in this match, but it’s going to be a lot of low quality chances.
Arsenal vs. PSG Prediction
This line is pretty low for Arsenal even if they have struggled in their attack so far this season.
Arsenal’s offensive numbers look bad right now, but that is mainly because they have spent essentially a full 90 minutes playing down a man. They’ve also played a really difficult schedule where they’ve favored a more defensive approach, but Arsenal are always dangerous on set pieces and PSG in Ligue 1 last season only had a 50% aerial duel win rate.
However, this is Arsenal at home, where they have been so good over a long period of time. Last season they had a +1.58 xGD per 90 minutes at the Emirates and only lost two fluke matches to West Ham and Aston Villa where they were by far the better team but got caught on the wrong side of variance.
I have Arsenal projected at -181, so I like the value on them at -140.
Pick: Arsenal ML (-140 via Caesars)
How to Watch Champions League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Emirates Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Paramount+ / YouTube TV, Fubo |
