Arsenal vs PSV Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -275 |
| PSV Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
Arsenal end their seven-year hiatus from the Champions League on Wednesday as the Gunners host their first group stage match against PSV Eindhoven. The Gunners spent seven years in the Europa League, and now that they're back in Europe's top flight competition they are solid odds-on favorites to win Group B over PSV, Sevilla and Lens.
The Dutch side has been a regular mainstay in the Europa League of late as well, but they're trying to overcome the loss of a lot of their most talented players to transfers. Arsenal are unbeaten in the Premier League through five matches, but even an Arsenal fan will tell you that the attack hasn't been at its best in the new season.
Given the struggles and potential regression looming for the Gunners' attack, the total is a bit higher than I think it should be on Wednesday.
Read on for my Arsenal vs PSV pick.
Arsenal
It's only a five-match sample, but given that xG becomes really predictive after 10 matches, we can glean some real data from the Gunners' opening fixtures of the league to judge how they might perform going forward. Last season, Arsenal averaged 1.89 xG per 90 minutes in the league and scored 2.31 goals per match. That's elite finishing over xG at a 22% clip as a team, which is really hard to sustain unless you have a dominant forward finisher.
There's no evidence or proof Arsenal have that from their personnel, and main strikers Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Jesus have more questions about how clinical they are than most of the top strikers in the PL.
A quick glance at the raw xG total per 90 this year would have Arsenal at 1.86 xG per match. That seems to suggest that the Gunners are right on pace with last season. But you have to factor in the higher goal environment and the weak schedule that Arsenal have faced. Once you adjust, the Gunners have only been 6% better than league average at creating scoring chances through five matches.
Last year, that number was 43% better than league average. Arsenal have finished their chances below their xG total too (nine goals from 9.3 xG). The Gunners are just as good at dominating possession and controlling matches as always under Mikel Arteta. The defense has been elite across the board, but the attack has taken a step back and is overvalued in the market right now. This was true in the win against Everton on Sunday in which Arsenal created 1.0 xG against a porous Everton defense.
PSV
PSV made some really intriguing signings in the offseason to replace the lost production from Xavi Simons and Cody Gakpo. Noa Lang came in from Club Brugge and has contributed nine shots and three goals in his first 2.3 90s for the club in the Eredivisie. They did lose 19 goals from Simons and nine goals and 12 assists from Gakpo, which means the club lost its top scorer and assister from last season's Eredivisie in which they had the best underlying numbers in the league.
Luuk de Jong is an elite aerial dual winner and solid shot getting striker. He's great as a poacher in the penalty area, but he's not a great fit for the quick strike transition stuff that PSV will need to rely on to score against Arsenal on Wednesday. PSV won't be able to have much settled possession against Arsenal in dangerous areas to enable de Jong's strengths to come to light.
Lang did make the trip to London, but he picked up an injury over the weekend and seems more likely than not to be on the bench on Wednesday. He's a dynamic dribbler and ball carrier and while Hirving Lozano is the likely replacement, he's a drop off in production from Lang.
PSV addressed their center back shortage with the loan deal for Armel Bella-Kotchap from Southampton, who has experience against this Arsenal attack.
Arsenal vs PSV
Pick & Prediction
Arsenal's adjusted attacking numbers have taken a clear step backward and PSV's summer sales and injury situation leave both attacking units overvalued in the market. Arsenal have remained amongst Europe's elite defensively when Arteta has his first choice defense available, which he will on Wednesday.
Gabriel is a good foil in the air for de Jong and the total should be priced at 2.75, not the current 3 in the market. In two Europa League meetings last fall, a better PSV team managed 0.3 xG and 0.8 xG, respectively. I'd bet under 3 goals at -120 or better.
Pick: Under 3 (-120 or better)
