In the final slate of Premier League action before the October international break, we have a clash between two teams that are off to complete opposite starts. Southampton, who are winless through six matches and in the bottom three of the table, travel to the Emirates to face Arsenal, who are unbeaten and in the top three.
Last time these sides met, the circumstances of the game were quite similar, although it took place much later in the season. The Gunners were in the midst of a title race, while the Saints were fighting against relegation. As a result, a thrilling 3-3 draw was a disappointment for both, especially for the visitors, as they had a two-goal lead in the 88th minute before a double salvo from Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka leveled the scoreline.
The gap between these teams has only grown in the 18 months since that last encounter, and that's reflected by the Arsenal moneyline being priced as high as -900 for this one. Let's get to my Arsenal vs Southamptonprediction.
Arsenal vs. Southampton Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +105 | 3.5 -110/-115 | -750 |
| Southampton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -145 | 3.5 -110/-115 | +1700 |
- Arsenal vs. Southampton moneyline odds: Arsenal -750, Southampton +1700, Draw +850
- Arsenal vs. Southampton over/under: 3.5 goals (-110 Over, -115 Under)
- Arsenal vs. Southampton pick: Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: Yes (+162)
I am backing the Arsenal to win and both teams to score in Arsenal vs. Southampton.
Arsenal Preview
Last time out, Mikel Arteta's men engineered a commanding 2-0 victory against PSG in the Champions League. Yet again, in a match against a "big" team, they showed a willingness to sit in a ultra-compact 4-4-2 mid/low block and shut down their opponents' attack, especially after they had the lead. A similar approach shouldn't be expected here, as the Gunners are far and away the better outfit.
Instead, dominance akin to what Arsenal displayed against Leicester last weekend appears likely. Yes, they needed a stoppage time winner from Leandro Trossard, but that game being 2-2 at that point after they quadrupled the Foxes' Expected Goals (xG) and had over 90% Field Tilt was an unjust outcome, to say the least.
On the personnel front, the majority of the issues are adjacent to the imperious William Saliba/Gabriel center back duo. The statuses of Jurrien Timber, Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu are all up in the air while Oleksandr Zinchenko remains out. Riccardo Calafiori at right back and Jakub Kiwior at left back, which we saw in the second half of the PSG match, is a real possibility, and that's far from the most defensively secure fullback pairing. Further up the pitch, everyone is healthy besides Odegaard, so Arteta will have a decision to make between Thomas Partey and Mikel Merino. Although, with how well the Ghanaian has been performing, it's difficult to imagine he won't start again Saturday.
Southampton Preview
While picking up just one point in the first six matches isn't a great look, Southampton haven't been as bad as a lot of people want to believe. They're 12th in the Premier League in Expected Threat (xT) differential, and while they are all over the place defensively (particularly in transition), they're still creating the 11th most xG per game.
A tactical approach emphasizing possession and high pressing when they lack athleticism in defense and final third difference-makers might not be ideal, but getting results this bad does seem slightly undeserved. Russell Martin and co. haven't faced a team like Arsenal yet, so how they adapt to such a physical, talented and tactically smart outfit remains a bit of mystery.
Nothing has summed up the Saints' troubles quite like Jack Stephens' current availability situation. After receiving a straight red in the 80th minute of a 3-0 defeat vs. Manchester United, Stephens directed some colorful language toward the match officials and received an additional two-game suspension on top of the three enforced absences for the sending off. He remains sidelined in this one, which doesn't bode well. In Hammurabi Code-fashion, that United game delivered the breakthrough of 18-year-old forward Tyler Dibling, who has been a lone source of optimism in the midst of a dreary start to the season. He'll figure to play a big role here, whether he starts up top or off the right.
Arsenal vs Southampton Prediction
As previously stated, Arsenal are massively favored and should win this fixture. There's just really not a situation where Southampton are going to be able to cope with the Gunners' attacking threat, unless Aaron Ramsdale puts in a 2017 David de Gea-level performance in his return to N5, which is very unlikely.
While I don't like the idea of Arsenal's moneyline at -750, factoring the potential defensive frailties that come with a Calafiori/Kiwior fullback tandem, I do like the value on the Both Teams to Score market. Dibling, Maxwell Cornet and Ben Brereton Diaz are all capable of a moment of magic from the wings against that level of wide defending, and like I said last week, these Gunners are always at risk of conceding a sloppy goal when they've accumulated a comfortable lead at home. Combining Arsenal to Win with that prop nets odds of just over +160, which is good value.
Pick: Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: Yes (+162 via bet365)
