Arsenal vs Wolves Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | -650 |
| Wolves Odds | +1400 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +126 / -154 |
Those who watched the Arsenal edition of Amazon's All or Nothing documentary series will be familiar with Mikel Arteta's relationship with Wolves. He wants his team to adopt a similar pack mentality, working as one unit to find and attack weaknesses in opponents.
It's then fitting that Arteta's side comes up against Wolves in the first match of a potentially tenure-defining season for the Basque manager. After coming up just short in two title races in as many years, the mentality in North London has shifted from hope to expectation. The Gunners are second-favorites to lift the trophy in May, priced just below reigning champs Manchester City.
This is Arsenal's best chance yet to dethrone Pep Guardiola and co. First, however, they have to get past a Wolverhampton squad that showed more positive signs than not in their first year under Gary O'Neil. Even with this contest being played at the Emirates, there's always a chance it could go awry, especially with Wolves seeking revenge for the two defeats the Gunners handed them last season.
How will this opening weekend Premier League match play out? Read on for my Arsenal vs Wolves prediction.
Arsenal Picks
There's an argument to be made Arsenal were the best team in England last campaign — despite finishing two points behind title-winners Manchester City — and their performance level should only improve this time around. There isn't a team in the world football that can match the Gunners' solidity and cohesiveness in every possible defensive situation, nor their dominance from set pieces.
Arteta and sporting director Edu have been using the summer transfer window to add another dimension to the squad's in-possession capacity. Center back/fullback-hybrid and technical wizard Riccardo Calafiori has already joined from Bologna, and Real Sociedad's Mikel Merino is seemingly on the way to fill the Granit Xhaka-sized hole in midfield. There are rumors a deal for an attacker could be done by the end of the month as well.
In the meantime, Calafiori's arrival is simply important as it gives Arteta another option in defense, especially with Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu not 100% fit to start the year. Oleksandr Zinchenko is primed to be the fourth defender next to the ever-reliable Ben White-William Saliba-Gabriel trio on Saturday though, and Declan Rice will probably take up that left No. 8 spot like he did for much of last season.
Wolves Picks
The eye test and metrics tell two very different stories about the Midlands outfit's 2023/24 season, where they finished comfortably away from the relegation zone in 14th. On one hand, O'Neil had Wolves operating at an impressive technical-tactical standard, weathering some major injury issues in the front line, and on the other hand they did have the fourth-worst Expected Threat (xT) differential in the league.
Wolves' summer business hasn't looked great from an outside perspective. They've sold two of their best players, winger Pedro Neto and center back Max Kilman, to other Premier League clubs, which is a bit concerning. On the signings front, forwards Rodrigo Gomes (from Braga) and Jorgen Strand Larsen (from Celta Vigo) have arrived along with highly touted right back prospect Pedro Lima. Additionally, midfielder Tommy Doyle made his loan from Manchester City permanent.
Now with only four true central defenders at the club, based on preseason lineups O'Neil has shifted from a 5-2-3 to a 4-2-3-1. That isn't unfamiliar territory for the manager, as he deployed that system at Bournemouth to keep them in the top-flight in 2022/23. For a squad that has undergone some major changes in the past few months and is still missing Matheus Cunha to injury, it remains to be seen how this alteration will impact them.
Arsenal vs Wolves
Prediction
First off, there's a clear advantage in quality for the home side. Add in their desire to get off to the right start in the quest to right the wrongs of the past two seasons and there's really no way I can justify picking against Arsenal in this fixture. Unfortunately (but rightfully), the market seconds that rationale, pricing the Gunners between -500 and -650 on the moneyline, so I would like to get some additional value on this match.
Enter the BTTS market. Arsenal were the best defensive team in the league last season, and against a Wolves side that is adapting to a new system and shifting personnel at the top of the pitch, a David Raya clean sheet looks likely. Additionally, in their four Premier League season openers under Arteta, the Gunners have won three, not conceding in two of those victories.
As a result, I like packaging an Arsenal win with a shutout at at a price of -120, just above a 54% implied probability.
