Every four years the continent of Asia gets together to decide its champions and this year the competition is pretty top heavy. Japan and South Korea are heavy favorites to take home the title in Qatar after a good showing at the World Cup.
The composition of the Asian Cup is a bit different to that of Europe or Africa. There are a few countries that are clearly above the rest and then the rest of the tournament is comprised of smaller countries without much footballing history. If you don't believe me, just take a look at the odds to win the tournament.
Here is my Asian Cup preview.
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Asian Cup Preview
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Japan | +225 |
| South Korea | +450 |
| Australia | +650 |
| Iran | +700 |
| Saudi Arabia | +700 |
| Qatar | +1000 |
| UAE | +2500 |
| Uzbekistan | +2500 |
| China | +3300 |
| Iraq | +3300 |
| Oman | +5000 |
| Syria | +10000 |
| Palestine | +10000 |
| Jordan | +10000 |
| Vietnam | +12500 |
| Bahrain | +12500 |
| Thailand | +15000 |
| Tajikistan | +20000 |
| Lebanon | +20000 |
| Malaysia | +20000 |
| Kyrgyzstan | +25000 |
| India | +25000 |
| Indonesia | +40000 |
| Hong Kong | +50000 |
odds via bet365
As you can see, this tournament is extremely top heavy with two clear favorites: Japan and South Korea. After those two there is a tier of countries that can maybe pull off the upset if everything goes right and then after Qatar it completely drops off into long shots that in my opinion have no shot because the talent gap is too wide.
The format of this tournament is the same as the European Championships and the Africa Cup of Nations starting with 24 countries with a 16-team knockout playoff.
If you'd like to see my individual projections for every single match throughout the Asian Cup, you can find them here.
2024 Asian Cup Predictions
South Korea to win the Asian Cup (+450)
Japan are absolutely loaded for this Asian Cup, but the price is way to short to play on them and quite frankly, I am not so sure the gap between them and South Korea is really that large.
Former USMNT manager Jurgen Klinsmann has now taken over the South Korean National Team and he has the team steered in the right direction. They beat China 3-0 and Singapore 5-0 in World Cup Qualifiers in November and are set up to dominate their group. They are the biggest favorite in this tournament to win their group that consists of Bahrain, Jordan and Malaysia, so they should cruise through it.
If they win their group, the only team that they would want to avoid in this tournament is Japan. If Japan win their group, which they are over -700 favorites to do, then South Korea would be on the opposite side of the knockout stage bracket as Japan and would only meet them in the final.
What is going to allow South Korea to dominate this tournament is their attack, which is absolutely loaded. It starts with Heung Min Son (Tottenham), who is having another fantastic Premier League season and is the best player in this tournament. Son has already scored 12 goals and dished out five assists, while also putting up a 0.70 xG + xA per 90 minute rate.
Not far behind Son in the goals tally is Hee-Chan Hwang, who is having a breakout season at Wolves under Gary O'Neill, already scoring 10 goals off of 5.9 expected. It doesn't stop there because South Korea also have Kang-In Lee, who has been thriving alongside Kylian Mbappe at PSG.
There are some question marks in the midfield, but in defense they have the best defender in this entire tournament in Kim Min-Jae (Bayern Munich), who has helped lead the back line for Germany's best defensive team and is an unbelievable ball carrier.
Klinsmann will have South Korea set up in a 4-2-3-1 to play possession-dominant football, looking to counter-press to suffocate their opponents. Kim-Min-Jae is crucial to this tactical set up because basically every one of their opponents is going to set up to play very direct, so having an outstanding transitional defender that can mop out all of these attacks is a crucial element that a lot of the top teams in this tournament don't have.
The path is good, they avoid Japan and with this attack and best defender in the tournament on their back line, the sky is the limit for the South Koreans.
Almoez Ali (Qatar) to win the Golden Boot (+1400)
Qatar are now under a new manager in Tintín Márquez, which means they are no longer playing the 5-3-2 low block that we saw in the World Cup. Instead, because Qatar are now playing a lot of lower tier sides, they are playing more on the front foot in a 4-3-3, which is really going to help their main striker Ali.
He won the Golden Boot at the previous Asian Cup, where Qatar were crowned champions by scoring nine goals, and he has a similar situation in this Asian Cup. First off, Qatar are the host nation, which means the tournament is set up in their favor. He scored seven of his nine goals in the group stage with four coming against North Korea.
Qatar routed Afghanistan 8-1 and India 3-0 in World Cup Qualifiers in November with Ali scoring five of their 12 goals. He's a well rounded striker that is an aerial threat standing at almost 6'0" and has been an above average finisher in the box.
He's having a great club season for Al Duhail SC in the Qatari Stars League scoring four goals in 12 appearances, but he has been forced to play more left wing rather than a central striker for his club team because Al Duhail SC brought in high priced Michael Olunga to be their main striker.
He's been their main man up top for a long time now and is going to have ample opportunities to pile on the goals. Qatar are in a group with Lebanon, Tajikistan and China, who are three well below average teams in Asia. Then, if Qatar win their group, they will get a third place team in the round of 16, a second place team from Group B or F and then they would most likely have to face South Korea. So, the tournament is set up perfectly against for Ali to repeat as the Golden Boot winner.
Group Forecast – South Korea 1st/Jordan 2nd in Group E (+100 via bet365)
I've already discussed South Korea above and quite frankly, they should cruise through this group, but let's talk about Jordan, who is an underrated team on the Asian continent.
Over the last two years they have played two of the bigger countries in Asia: Australia and Saudi Arabia. They played Australia two years ago, losing to them 1-0, but played them even on expected goals. Then they played Saudi Arabia in a World Cup Qualifier on November 21st. They lost match 2-0, but controlled 56% possession, outshot Saudi Arabia 18 to 8 and won on xG 2.08 to 0.97. They even played a friendly against Qatar on January 5th and outshot them 15 to 5 and won the match 2-1.
They are pretty significant favorites in the their first match against Malaysia and then should be pretty sizable favorites in their final match against Bahrain, who have put up good numbers against the bottom of the barrel teams in the Asia, but have struggled when they've had to play anyone decent.
So, I really think Jordan are a pretty significant favorite to finish second in this group with South Korea cruising by everybody, so +100 is way too short of a price for me.
