Aston Villa vs Arsenal Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | +350 |
| Arsenal Odds | -135 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -152 / +114 |
It might be the North London Derby or Man United vs Liverpool — that's next Sunday — but this weekend's slate of Premier League games does have one notable "rivalry." That, of course, would be the Unai Emery/Emi Martinez derby, with the Aston Villa manager and goalkeeper both having well-documented, prior affiliations with Arsenal. Villa won both editions of this derby last season, with the second, a 2-0 win in London, ultimately preventing Arsenal from winning the Premier League.
This will be the third time Emery has hosted his former employers at Villa Park, and the previous two outings yielded wildly different outcomes. Two seasons ago, Arsenal prevailed through a late Martinez own goal (with Gabriel Martinelli padding the advantage in added time). Last year, the Villans never relinquished an early 1-0 lead as Mikel Arteta, serving a suspension, watched on from an executive box. Given how most of the close refereeing decisions played out, it's probably a good thing he wasn't on the touchline for the sake of the fourth official, Graham Scott.
How will this one play out? Read on for my Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction.
Aston Villa Picks
Despite being on the right end of a 2-1 scoreline, Aston Villa didn't have a great performance at the London Stadium last Saturday. The game could easily have gone the other way, as West Ham had a slight edge in Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Threat (xT). Ultimately, Emery and co. will be happy with the result and the fact their two major summer signings, Amadou Onana and Ian Maatsen made their competitive debuts for the club. Onana even found his way onto the scoresheet, which was another bonus.
Looking ahead, Boubacar Kamara and Tyrone Mings are still sidelined with long-term injuries. Matty Cash might have joined them in the treatment room too after going off with an injury in the second half of last weekend's match. This is a squad with a lot of depth though, and names like Emiliano Buendia and Ross Barkley not being among Emery's five subs on Saturday illustrates that perfectly.
There's a plethora of evidence that points to how good Villa are under Emery, and their system hasn't deviated from what got them into fourth last campaign. The methodical 4-4-2 deep build-up is still a staple, along with the mid-block in the same arrangement with a well-drilled offside trap. There's an argument to be the Birmingham outift might be even better this season.
Arsenal Picks
Arsenal got their title charge off to a good start with a 2-0 win over Wolves at the Emirates last weekend. Although, like their counterparts in this fixture, they didn't play that well either. The metrics say an Arsenal win was the fair result, as they accumulated 1.59 xT to their opponents' 0.92 and had just under 64% Field Tilt, but it certainly wasn't dominant. Had Bukayo Saka not made it 2-0 when he did, there was real pressure from the visitors building to equalize and possibly go on to get a point (or even three).
Following Jurrien Timber's return to the match day squad and appearance as a sub on Saturday, the only notable absences the Gunners are dealing with are Takehiro Tomiyasu and Fabio Vieira. With the Mikel Merino deal still not completed, there shouldn't be many (if any) changes to the starting XI. The likeliest alteration would be removing Oleksandr Zinchenko in favor of a more defensively sound option — either Timber or Riccardo Calafiori — but the Ukrainian is at a significantly higher match fitness level, which is important for a tough away day.
Overall, Arsenal's tactical identity is the same as usual, and at worst, they're the second-best side in England.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Prediction
Finding value on this fixture boils down to one key factor, and that's the favorable tactical matchup for Aston Villa. In all three matches against Arsenal under Emery, they've shown an ability to break the Gunners' press and generate transitional moments. That's in large part due to how their first phase build-up structure and principles function when pitted against Arsenal's 4-3-1-2 high press, but they also have courage and measured risk-taking to make those advantages count. The Ollie Watkins-Morgan Rogers-Leon Bailey trio will have opportunities to threaten this Arsenal back line and is capable of capitalizing.
Additionally, the Villans have added a 6-foot-5 defensive midfielder with freakishly long legs, dueling power and absurd ground coverage that massively strengthens their defense just by being out there. As a result, it will be more difficult than ever for Arsenal to have success with the ball against Emery's side. Throw in the fact that this game is at Villa Park — and a season home opener at that — and it just becomes hard to ignore the Villa double chance market at even money.
