Aston Villa vs Arsenal Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | +240 |
| Arsenal Odds | +105 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Aston Villa and Arsenal meet at Villa Park for a massive match in the title race.
Villa pulled off a 1-0 upset over Manchester City on Wednesday to win their 14th straight match at home in the Premier League and move into the third place in the table. The job that Unai Emery has done with Aston Villa is nothing short of remarkable and now he gets to face the club that sacked him in 2019.
Arsenal grabbed a win at the death at Kenilworth road on Tuesday, beating Luton Town 4-3 in one of the most exciting matches on the season. The Gunners are now two points clear at the top of Liverpool, but this is maybe the most difficult test they have faced yet this season. They are the last team to beat Aston Villa at Villa Park, so this should be a really fun match.
Here is my Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction.
Aston Villa
The performance that Aston Villa put in against Manchester City on Wednesday was nothing short of remarkable and it's maybe the best match anybody has played against Manchester City since Pep Guardiola took over as manager. The Cityzens took two shots for the entire match and both of them came before the 15th minute.
We've just witnessed an Unai Emery masterclass and these stats prove it. 🫡
Pep Guardiola has managed 535 league games in Europe's big-five divisions, this was:
◉ The most shots his side have faced the first half of any of those 535 matches (13)
◉ The joint-most shots his… pic.twitter.com/dXko211PxW— Squawka (@Squawka) December 6, 2023
They can do the exact same thing to Arsenal, who play a very similar style to that of City. It's Aston Villa's out of possession work that was most impressive against Manchester City. Since Doku and Grealish were out, City had no outlet to play balls over the top of Villa's high line.
That meant that Emery was perfectly happy having his team sit in a 4-4-2 mid block, cutting off any type of passes through the middle of the pitch and forcing Manchester City to send the ball wide, knowing they didn't have wingers who could beat the opposing fullback in 1 v 1 situations. It also allowed them to cut off all passes to Haaland.
It will be different on Saturday because Arsenal actually want to play the ball into wide areas as that is where their best attacker Bukayo Saka is.
Aston Villa are a very tactically diverse team and have shown ability to profile well in this types of situations. Typically, Emery wants his team to play out of the back and control possession, which can be a dangerous game to play against Arsenal's high press, but sometimes the match calls for them to play without the ball and in transition, which is what they did for large stretches against Manchester City. They also love to get the ball into wide areas, as Emery wants to send his fullbacks high up the pitch in build up to create chances via crosses.
It's worked because Aston Villa have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area, which is a big part as to why they are averaging 1.73 npxG per 90 minutes.
Arsenal
Arsenal are sitting atop the Premier League table, but it's not because of their offense. Mikel Arteta's side has been struggling to play through the middle of the pitch, which is a problem because that is where the goals are. Opponents know how good Arsenal are in build up, so they are staying narrow shape out of possession and forcing Arsenal to play the ball into wide areas.
Then once the ball goes wide to Saka or Martinelli, opponents are double teaming them, which then causes Arsenal to circulate the ball back and forth around the opposing low block until they can find an opening.
Arsenal have the second-lowest percentage of chances created coming through the middle of the pitch. They are still averaging 1.84 xG per 90 minutes, but they've been aided by a Premier League-high six penalties and have scored nine goals off of set pieces, which could be a factor in this match because Aston Villa has been poor at defending set pieces.
Even though Arsenal conceded three goals to Luton Town on Tuesday, it was an incredibly fluky. David Raya had his worst match in net since arriving at Arsenal having a -2.1 post shot xG +/- in the match. In addition, Luton Town scored two goals off of set pieces when Arsenal had only conceded one all season prior to that match.
Even with that poor performance on paper on Tuesday, Arsenal's defense may be the best in the world right now. The Gunners are only allowing 0.72 NPxG per 90 minutes, which is first in the Premier League. Arsenal's defense has thrived because they are an incredible pressing team out of possession and are outstanding in transition defense. The Gunners are third in PPDA and fourth in high turnovers, while also being second in Final Third to Box Entry Conversion Rate. That is massive because since Arsenal hold so much possession it means they are stopping those transition attacks when opponents are forced to play very direct against them, which may be the case for Aston Villa on Saturday.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Prediction
Even if Arsenal are able to hold a majority of the possession in this match, it's still not a good matchup for them. With Aston Villa playing their compact 4-4-2 and condensing the space in between the lines, that is going to completely take Odegaard and whoever is playing the eight role out of the picture in build up, similar to what they did to Manchester City on Wednesday.
That means Arsenal are going to be circulating the ball constantly around Aston Villa's low block until they find an opening, but given how good Aston Villa are out of possession, I don't think they are going to be be able to find that opening.
The market is simply too high on Arsenal here on the road against one the best home field advantage in English football right now. So, I like the value on Aston Villa +0.5 at -130.
