Bayern Munich make the trip to Villa Park to take on Aston Villa for a crucial Champions League encounter.
Aston Villa have gotten off to a good start in the Premier League, winning four of their first six matches, but the schedule has been pretty easy. They dispatched Young Boys 3-0 in the first Champions League match with another three points being massive for their chances of making the knockout stage.
Bayern Munich are coming off their first blemish of the season, drawing Leverkusen 1-1 over the weekend. With that being said, it's been a really good start for Vincent Kompany's side, as they've outscored their opponents 30-to-5 in all competitions. Bayern Munich will also be out for a little revenge because Unai Emery's Villarreal knocked them out of the Champions League in 2022.
Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +105 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +320 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -135 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | -135 |
- Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich moneyline odds: Aston Villa +320, Bayern Munich -135, Draw +320
- Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich pick: Bayern Munich ML
I am backing the Bayern Munich ML in Bayern Munich vs. Aston Villa.
Aston Villa Preview
Aston Villa haven't really been tested so far this season, as they've played one of the easiest Premier League schedules. They certainly haven't faced a team even close to the attacking talent Bayern Munich have and the way Unai Emery sets his team up regularly is the way to stop Bayern Munich.
Let's start with Aston Villa out of possession. They will typically play a very high line with a very compact 4-4-2 structure to reduce the space in between the lines. It works against teams like Arsenal or even lesser competition that can't consistently play direct or play long balls over the top of their defensive structure. That isn't going to work against Bayern Munich, who have a plethora of attackers that can easily make runs off the last line of defense.
Now for Aston Villa in possession. Unai Emery wants his team to play out of the back to try and control matches. He does not want his team to play direct, which is going to be a problem here against Bayern Munich. The Villans' build up has looked good so far this season, but that is because they haven't played anybody who can press them effectively. One of the reasons why Aston Villa's underlying metrics weren't great last season and why they conceded the second-most big scoring chances was because they consistently would turn the ball over in dangerous areas against good pressing teams. On top of that, their best possession midfielder, Douglas Luiz, is gone, so I think they are going to have a lot of trouble getting the ball out of their own final third.
Bayern Munich Preview
Bayern Munich have maybe been the best team in all of Europe to begin the season, as Vincent Kompany has his team in a really good spot tactically. Bayern are much more aggressive than they normally were under Thomas Tuchel, which has allowed them to create loads of chances offensively.
It's all about overwhelming the opposition, as Bayern Munich are using a lot of different build up structures, but the goal remains the same no matter what. First, they are trying to overload the last line of defense by putting six, sometimes even seven guys on that line, which means either they will have a numerical advantage or the opposing defense will be forced to sit incredibly deep. The other goal is to overload and play through the middle of the pitch. Harry Kane and Muisiala will often use opposite movements when one will drop deep to pull a defender with them and the other will make a run into that vacated space.
The central overload also means that Bayern can get their wingers into 1 v 1 situations. This summer Bayern Munich brought in one of the best wingers in all of world football in Michael Olise, who is already averaging 0.91 xG + xA per 90 minutes.
What has been the story of Bayern Munich though is how good they have been defensively. Because they are overwhelming their opponents and pinning them inside their own final third, they are counter-pressing very aggressively and they have been really successful, which means opponents can rarely make it out of their third of the pitch. In their last two matches against Werder Bremen and Leverkusen they only allowed a total of three shots at 0.1 xG.
Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich Prediction
I really think Bayern Munich are going to hammer Aston Villa in this match. This has happened time and time against with Unai Emery since he's been at Aston Villa. His team is not set up to play against these types of elite attacking teams with their high line. Even last season when Vincent Kompany was at Burnley his team scored three combined goals against Unai Emery's Aston Villa.
Bayern Munich's counter-press is the reason why they are only allowing 0.35 npxG per 90 minutes this season, as they have a PPDA of 8.17 and are forcing their opponents into losing possession in dangerous areas 30.2 times per 90 minutes. If Aston Villa are going to try and build out of the back, it's going to allow Bayern Munich to generate some easy transition opportunities and create a lot of high quality chances.
I have Bayern Munich projected at -165, so I love the value on them here on the road at -135.
