Aston Villa vs Everton Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -143 |
| Everton Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110/-110 |
Both Aston Villa and Everton lost on opening day in the Premier League, but the tenor of those defeats was quite different. The Toffees created more than 2.5 expected goals and dominated large stretches of their home match against Fulham, but poor finishing and excellent goalkeeping from Fulham goalkeeper Bernd Leno led the Cottagers to 1-0 road victory. Conversely, Aston Villa conceded early and often on the road against Newcastle en route to a 5-1 defeat. Additionally, the Villans lost center back Tyrone Mings to injury.
The Villans are expected to bounce back as home favorites against the Toffees, but the market might be underrating just how much Everton improved under Sean Dyche last season. The aggressive midfield set up can disrupt Villa's need for build-up play, and there's real questions about Villa's attack given the injury and fitness situation.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa has lost a key pillar in both defense and attack less than a week into the season. Mings had surgery and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. The Villans also lost Emiliano Buendia for the season during preseason and will be without his natural replacement, Jacob Ramsey, for this match. The Villans could be boosted by the presence of Leon Bailey, but his status is questionable pending a fitness test.
The market really liked Aston Villa in the second half of last season, but has taken money against Aston Vilaa in each of its first two fixtures this season. Newcastle was around -135 on the three-way moneyline before getting bet up to -155. The market has come down on Villa from -165 on the three-way to its current price in the 140s.
Villa does have a replacement for Mings in new signee Pau Torres, but that's a very different center-back profile. The Villans lost their best aerial defender and replaced him with someone who grades out poorly in the air and has never defended in the Premier League. Torres adds passing value in build-up, but his pairing with Ezri Konsa comes with significant risk.
Everton
The main reason for optimism in the Toffees is their athleticism and functional midfield. Alex Iwobi, Idrissa Gana Gueye and Amadou Onana offer a good amount of ball winning and pressing ability. Those three give Dyche some tactical flexibility to play more on the front foot and try to force high turnovers that can turn into attacking opportunities.
The Toffees had a -0.69 xG difference per 90 in their pre-Dyche matches last season. After his arrival in late January, they played the rest of the season at a -0.31 xG difference per 90 rate. That doesn’t seem like a huge difference, but that’s the difference between relegation and the lower midtable.
The market is pricing Everton like one of the five worst teams in the league, but I don't have them power rated that low. The first match against Fulham was encouraging because the Toffees didn't need to have a ton of the possession in the match and still looked consistently dangerous in and around the penalty area.
Finishing variance in one match shouldn't really be read into, and I'd expect the Toffees to finish at a league average clip for the rest of the season. The Toffees likely won't have Dominic Calvert-Lewin available to start, but his presence off the bench gives Everton a real aerial threat and a direct attacking option. Given Villa's defensive situation, Everton has a clear way back into this match if they're trailing.
Aston Villa vs Everton
Pick & Prediction
Entering the season, I was lower than the market on Aston Villa because so much of their second half run was driven by Ollie Watkins' hot finishing and opponents missing a ton of chances.
We've seen Everton cause real problems for teams like Arsenal and Brighton and given Villa's limitations, I'm buying the Toffees to get a result away from home.
I'd bet Everton +0.5 at +120 or better.
