Aston Villa vs Everton Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -200 |
| Everton Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
Aston Villa look for back to back wins when they host Everton at Villa Park.
Aston Villa got a convincing 2-1 win over Leicester City before the international break, giving them six points to start the season. Unai Emery's team now will have to navigate a difficult week as they have to travel to Switzerland for a Champions League match on Tuesday and follow that up with a Midlands derby against Wolves.
Everton had one of the worst collapses the Premier League has ever seen right before the international break. They had a comfortable 2-0 lead with 10 minutes left to play and Bournemouth erased all of it to win 3-2. The loss puts Everton at the bottom of the table with three losses and a -8 goal differential. Sean Dyche desperately needs a response from his team on Saturday.
Here is my Aston Villa vs Everton prediction ahead of their Premier League clash.
Aston Villa
Unai Emery is a great tactician and he will without a doubt be coming with the same tactical plan as the previous three other teams, as Aston Villa are very versatile with their build up. They showed that last season when they hammered Everton 4-0 at Villa Park.
Aston Villa are a team that likes to control possession and build out of the back. There were some question marks whether they'd be as effective without Douglas Luiz, but the midfield partnership between Onana and Tielemens has been working really nicely so far. The goal is to bait the opponent into pressing to try and get the ball into the second phase and use their skilled dribblers to run at the opposing defense. It's usually a 4-2-4 shape, which gives them a numerical advantage in the first phase and really helps them beat the first line of the pressure.
Once they are able to start running at the opposing defense, they have one of the better strikers in Ollie Watkins. He's elite at making runs off the opponent's back line and it's how he scored most of his 19 goals last season.
Villa's out of possession structure though does leave them vulnerable against a team like Everton. Emery wants his team to play a compact and narrow defensive shape to prevent teams from playing through the middle and finding space in between the lines. They also play a really high line, which leaves them susceptible to balls being played over the top, which is basically the only way Everton like to play when they have the ball.
Everton
What was utterly shocking about Everton in that match was their ability to defend crosses. Last season, they were so good in their defensive block and defending in their penalty area to not allow those types of chances to be created. Bournemouth ended up completing eight crosses into the penalty area. For context, Premier League teams typically only allow two completed crosses on average in the penalty area per match.
What is also happening to Everton is teams are taking the blueprint from the opening match against Brighton, which is trying to overload the wide areas to stretch Everton’s defensive block to create space in the middle of the pitch. Bournemouth used those overloads though to simply send in crosses with an alarming amount of success.
The Toffees did look more dangerous in transition against Bournemouth and most importantly they are still one of the best set piece offenses in the Premier League. Last season, Aston Villa were dead last in xG per set piece, so Everton without a doubt has a route to score in this match. Even if they fall behind, they are good pressing team out of their mid to high block, as they were top five in high turnovers last year and have recorded double digit high recoveries in each of their first three Premier League matches.
Aston Villa vs Everton
Prediction
This match is set up to be a bit more high event, especially if we get an early goal. If Everton go behind, they are going to press aggressively out of their high block to try and generate high turnovers to give them easy transition opportunities. If Aston Villa go behind, they are going to have to play a really high line, but they also will be really aggressive in possession and should eventually find a way through Everton's defensive block.
Emery will come with the same tactical plan as the other three teams that have played Everton to try and stretch their defensive block with wide overloads to create space in the middle of the pitch. If they aren't able to play through the middle, well Everton sure did show against Bournemouth that they are maybe not the team they once were when it comes to winning aerial duels and defending crosses.
I think this match ends up being very back forth with both teams having advantages when they are in possession. I have both teams to score projected at -184, so I like the value on the current line of -120.
