Aston Villa vs Luton Town Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -400 |
| Luton Town Odds | +850 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225/+170 |
Aston Villa look to keep their good form going when they host Luton Town at Villa Park.
The Villans are in red hot form at the moment, beating West Ham on Sunday and following it up with a road in at AZ Alkmaar in the Europa Conference League. Unai Emery's side lives for spots like this against lesser competition and it's one of the reasons why they've had such a meteoric rise. However, this is a bad spot for them, playing their third match in seven days after having to travel to the Netherlands and then back to Birmingham.
Luton Town came from behind with two late goals to secure a draw at Nottingham Forest last Saturday. The Hatters are going to be in the relegation fight all season long and matches like these where they are expected to lose, can be a good opportunity to pick up points when they aren't expecting it.
Aston Villa
Even though Aston Villa have over-performed their expected metrics, they should have a good tactical advantage here against Luton Town.
When Aston Villa are in possession, they like to build out of a 3-2-5 where Kamara will drop into the last line of defense, McGinn will invert from right-mid alongside Luiz and the wingbacks Cash and Digne will push high and wide towards the opponent's backline.
Villa are trying to cause the opposing defense to press the first pass from the goal keeper to either Douglas Luiz or John McGinn pass the ball out wide to create a numerical advantage to exploit teams on the wings. With the positioning of Zaniolo and Diaby being more central, it's allowed Ollie Watkins to make many different runs off the last line of the defense and it also gives space for Cash and Digne to create chances via crosses. Aston Villa have been very successful playing this way against lesser competition and are completing the second-most crosses into the penalty area of any team in the Premier League. That will be a big advantage against Luton Town, who are poor defending in wide areas.
Luton Town
Luton Town are such a fascinating team because of how the market perceives them. They are without a doubt the least talented team in the Premier League, but they clearly aren't the worst team and maybe not even the second-worst.
They have a very unique was of playing and creating chances offensively. It's pretty clear they do not have the midfielders and attackers to try and build up or play through the middle of the pitch. So, what Rob Edwards wants his team to do is exploit the space out wide with overlapping fullbacks to create chances via crosses into the box. I'm sure you wouldn't believe it, but Luton Town have attempted the most crosses of anyone in the Premier League and have completed the most crosses in the opponent's penalty area.
What some teams have done to combat this is sit off Luton, forcing them to build the ball out of the back. Nottingham Forest stifled them for most of the match before conceding two late goals, but teams tend to focus on winning duals in the middle of the pitch against Luton Town since they are sending almost all of their goal kicks long.
Out of possession, Luton Town are incredibly active and are trying cause problems when opponents try to build out of the back. The goal is to force high turnovers to create transition opportunities when the opponent is out of position. They've had a lot of success doing just that, as the Hatters have forced the fourth-most high turnovers and have 15 shots off of those forced high turnovers, which is top five in the Premier League.
Aston Villa vs Luton Town
Prediction
Where Aston Villa have gotten themselves into trouble this season is turning the ball over in their own end of the pitch. It's happened a lot because Unai Emery demands his team plays out of the back, which has been successful but also leaves them exposed when they do lose the ball.
If there is a team in the bottom half of the table that could give Aston Villa trouble, it's Luton Town. The Hatters, even though they haven't scored very much, are just about the most efficient transition team at getting the ball into the opponent's penalty area once they enter the final third.
Really what this comes down to is week in and week out the betting market is giving Luton Town zero respect. If we take just purely this year's numbers, Aston Villa have been 1.04 goals better based on expected goal differential. Home field advantage is worth about 0.30 goals in the Premier League, so even after accounting for home field advantage, I can't even get to Aston Villa -1.5.
So, I like the value on Luton Town +1.5 at +110 to keep this match close.
