Aston Villa look to maintain their good form when they host Man United at Villa Park.
It's been a brilliant start to the season for Aston Villa and they just got one of their most famous victories under Unai Emery, beating Bayern Munich 1-0 at home in the Champions League.
They've played one of the easiest schedules so far to start the Premier League but have taken care of business, winning four of their first six matches. They will be out for some revenge on Saturday because Manchester United beat them in both meetings last season.
Manchester United is in a state of disarray at the moment. Erik ten Hag is one of the hottest seats you can imagine and a loss here might end up being the last straw.
They got hammered 3-0 by Tottenham at home last time they were in action in the Premier League and needed a stoppage time goal to draw Porto in the Europa League on Thursday. United is currently sitting in 13th place and needs to start picking up results, or this could be one of the worst seasons the club has ever experienced.
Below, read my Aston Villa vs Manchester United predictions.
Aston Villa vs. Man United Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +120 | 2.5 -188o / +150u | +120 |
| Man United Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -150 | 2.5 -188o / +150u | +205 |
- Aston Villa vs. Man United moneyline odds: Aston Villa +120, Man United +205, Draw +285
- Aston Villa vs. Man United over/under: 2.5 goals (over -188, under +150)
- Aston Villa vs. Man United pick: Aston Villa ML
Aston Villa Preview
Aston Villa got their first big test of the season and passed it against Bayern Munich. They weren't that impressive in the match because Bayern dominated possession and Aston Villa was forced to play more direct, but this is going to be a much easier opponent.
Emery wants his team to play out of the back to try and control matches. The Villans' build-up has looked good so far this season, as they have been able to consistently build out of the back against some pretty poor pressing teams.
Aston Villa has the sixth-best build-up completion percentage and has one of the lowest turnover rates in dangerous areas. That has led Aston Villa to average 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes and they have two really good strikers in Ollie Watkins and Jhon Durán, who have combined for eight goals already this season.
One thing that has been drastically better for Aston Villa this season has been their set-piece offense. They are one of the many teams in the Premier League that employs a set-piece coach and it's paid off because they've already scored three goals off of them and have the highest xG per set-piece in the Premier League.
Manchester United has been below average at defending set pieces this season, so Aston Villa will have a big advantage over them.
Since Emery arrived, Aston Villa has had one of the most drastic home/road splits in England. Since the start of last season, Aston Villa has a +15.3 expected goal differential at Villa Park but has a -9.1 expected goal differential away from home.
Man United Preview
Ten Hag has been one of the worst out-of-possession tactical managers for a while now and winning two trophies has overshadowed the actual issues with his side because the defensive structure has been the big issue for a year and a half now.
Not only has United's press not been effective, but when they try to sit off in their defensive structure, they are simply allowing way too much space, which is why teams have been able to play right through them.
Before Fernandes got the red card in the 42nd minute, Manchester United had already conceded 12 shots and 1.99 expected goals. Then, with a two-goal lead against Porto, they proceeded to concede three consecutive goals and it almost cost the match.
Just take a look at the difference between Arsenal and Manchester United defending in the same formation.
One is easy to play against.
The other is not.
Gaps, distances & work rate. pic.twitter.com/PxAsZCRyTX
— Talking Tactics (@TalkinTactics) October 1, 2024
While the defense has all sorts of issues, the offensive numbers have improved. Manchester United is averaging 1.80 xG per 90 minutes because they have been more effective with their build-up.
With Lisandro Martinez and now Matthijs de Ligt in the lineup, it has allowed United to go short from goal kicks and use more short passes to play through an opponent's press. In this match, though, they are going to have to play a lot more long balls, with Aston Villa playing a high defensive line.
Aston Villa vs Man United Prediction
This price is too low for Aston Villa with how good they have been at Villa Park.
Where Aston Villa tends to struggle is when they play elite pressing teams and they are forced to either send long balls up to the strikers or they turn the ball over on their end of the pitch, which leads to easy transition opportunities.
Manchester United is the furthest thing from an elite pressing team and even if they sit in a passive defensive structure, their positioning and work rate aren't good enough to limit Villa from creating high-quality chances.
Manchester United may have won both meetings against Aston Villa last season, but Villa dominated both matches, winning the expected goals battle a combined 4.1 to 2.9. Aston Villa will also be on an extra day of rest, with Manchester United having traveled to play Porto in Portugal on Thursday in the Europa League.
I have Aston Villa projected at -110, so I like the value of them here at home at +120.
