Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -188 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Aston Villa will try to halt a three-match losing run at home on Saturday when they host a Nottingham Forest squad that has only two away league wins this season.
Villa began the season as the league’s best home side, winning their first seven league fixtures at Villa Park while failing to take nearly as many points on their travels. But both their home and away form have reversed of late as manager Unai Emery’s squad have dropped home fixtures to Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal in quick succession, while going unbeaten in their past five as visitors.
Forest is coming off a crucial 2-0 home victory over 10-man West Ham last Saturday that took the Trees to four points clear of the relegation places. In the wider view, their improvement has been definite — if incremental — since the managerial change, taking 10 points from eight games.
The stage is set, so let's look deeper at the Aston Villa vs. Nottingham odds and make a pick.
Aston Villa
After a relatively quiet stretch through the holiday period, Ollie Watkins has recently discovered a good run of winter form.
He provided a brace in last weekend’s 2-1 win at Fulham, an effort that was his third multi-goal appearance of the season after earlier hat tricks against Hibernian in the UEFA Europa League and Brighton in league play.
And he’s been on the end of at least 0.6 xG in total chances in four consecutive league games, which amounts to his most consistent stretch of the campaign.
Theoretically, that could help Villa string some results together similar to how they did to briefly move atop the table this fall.
But the rest of Emery’s squad has gone into a collective slump, scoring only five goals in which their striker was not directly involved over their past eight matches. Two of those came in the 5-0 rout of last-place Sheffield United, and another came against second-division Middlesbrough.
The Fulham victory was also Villa's first game since losing Boubacar Traore for the season to a torn ACL. In five matches without the defensive midfielder, Villa has yet to keep a clean sheet.
Nottingham Forest
Meanwhile, Forest is also enjoying the return of a key attacker in Nigerian striker Taiwo Awoniyi, whose presence continues to dramatically influence his team’s results for the better.
However, it’s unclear if he’ll be available Saturday after he departed the win over West Ham in the 67th minute after having scored the opener in first-half stoppage time.
The form sheet shows how much of a difference that could make. The Trees have picked up 1.33 points per game across 27 Premier League matches since the start of the 2022-2023 season when he starts. That rate falls to 0.72 ppg when he’s either a substitute or an injured scratch.
With Chris Wood also injured, Divock Origi is likely to start if Awoniyi can't go from the opening whistle. That wouldn't be a reassuring sight for Forest supporters as Origi hasn't scored in the league and has only managed four shots in 11 appearances (two starts).
On the opposite end of the pitch, Nuno Espirito Santo could welcome the return of Ivorians Willy Boly, Serge Aurier and Ibrahim Sangare after their African Cup of Nations triumph. Those reinforcements could help boost a defense that hadn't kept a clean sheet against top-flight opposition under their new manager until last Saturday’s win.
The trip to Villa Park will provide the opportunity to pick up a fifth away point — or possibly more — in Espirito Santo’s fourth league away match in charge. That would match or exceed Forest’s total haul on their travels under previous manager Steve Cooper.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
It's really hard — and probably inadvisable — to play a side without knowing Awoniyi's status.
Regardless, Forest has been more goal-dangerous since Espirito Santo's takeover. Meanwhile, Villa have struggled to keep clean sheets regardless of whether they are steamrolling opponents or losing.
The best play is a yes wager on both teams to score at -145 odds and an implied 59.2% probability. It's cashed in nine of Villa's 12 home matches, and in all four away league games that Espirito Santo has managed this season.
The alternative? Wait for more concrete Awoniyi news and parlay the yes wager with another bet.
Pick: Yes – Both Teams to Score (-145, Caesars)
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