Aston Villa vs. West Ham Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | +130 |
| West Ham Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-116 / -106) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Saturday evening via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Aston Villa and West Ham United have had underwhelming starts to the Premier League season, with just one win total in six combined matches.
The Hammers are the only team to lose all three of its league matches, while the hosts were beaten on the road at Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in its only away fixtures.
Villa did lose new center back Diego Carlos to injury for Sunday's match, which could test the depth of its defense. Although, I do expect manager Steven Gerrard to name last year's pairing of Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings as the center backs.
The line opened with Aston Villa as a +145 home moneyline favorite and dipped as low as +125, but there was some movement back toward West Ham leading up to this game since the home side is currently a +130 ML favorite.
Aston Villa
Based on ball control and possession numbers, Villa had the better numbers last season when compared to West Ham. The Villans were eighth in box entries and seventh in crosses completed into the penalty area, while West Ham was in the bottom half in defending both of those last season.
The data sample is too small and schedule dependent to use the new year's numbers, but Villa's main problem was turning the final third possession into clear scoring chances.
The Villans have also conceded more goals than you'd expect from a Gerrard side, but a lot of that has to do with variance more than bad defending. Last year, they finished top 10 in box entries allowed, progressive passes conceded, as well as shots and non-penalty xG per 90 minutes yielded. That essentially means that Villa's underlying process defensively was good at stopping the ball and preventing shots.
The results were less good, but a lot of that was down to poor goalkeeping, good opposition shooting and some unlucky bounces. Even though Crystal Palace found a ton of success against Villa, the host should play better here.
By The Numbers
- 30 — Villa has the sixth-most open play shots in the Premier League thus far.
- 3 — A set-piece deficiency early in the year has led to this many conceded goals off one xGA, but that's unlikely to continue at that rate.
West Ham United
West Ham managed to finish seventh last season, but the trend line on manager David Moyes' side is quite discouraging if you zoom out and look at the bigger picture. The Hammers were a below average EPL outfit in the second half of the season and that has continued.
The Hammers habe done very little strengthening or freshening up of the squad beyond the addition of Gianluca Scamacca, a reserve striker to play behind the regressing Michail Antonio. That may change in the future with Lucas Paqueta coming into the midfield, but he won't play in this match.
The result has been a struggling defense and an offense that has failed to find the space for direct attacks in behind that it had in the past. Against Manchester City — who looked very vulnerable against Newcastle — the club never really threatened with 0.4 xG in a home match.
Moyes' side will score goals at some point, as they haven't netted from 3.2 xG to date, but this is a trend line of regression that dates back to last season when West Ham was the most efficient EPL finishing team. That was always going to regress toward the mean and we've seen that early on.
By The Numbers
- 0.8 — West Ham has averaged less than one non-penalty xG per match this season.
- 12th — The Hammers' ranking when it comes to shots from open play this season in the English top flight.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The market is suggesting these teams are about equal, with West Ham being marginally better if you take out the built-in, home-field advantage for Villa. Coming into the season, I had the Villans power-rated as the better side and even though they have underwhelmed to this point, the Hammers have been even more lackluster.
There will be spots I'll look to buy low on West Ham in the future, but this price isn't good enough. In fact, given I project Villa as a better side, the +130 ML number we're getting is a bit cheap based on my data.
I project Villa at +116 ML odds to take all three points at home and would bet them at +125 or better to win this match.
The Pick: Aston Villa ML (+125 or better)
