Aston Villa vs Wolves Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -165 |
| Wolves Odds | +420 |
| Draw | +390 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +140 |
It's derby day in the West Midlands of England as Aston Villa host Wolves in a key rivalry matchup for both clubs. These two sides played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, and both have real European aspirations after outperforming preseason club expectations. Villa are three points ahead of Tottenham in fourth in the Premier League table and while England is likely to get five spots in the Champions League, a top four finish would be quite the achievement for Villa in the first full season under Unai Emery.
Wolves began the season with the fourth-worst relegation odds and now Gary O'Neil's side has a real aim to qualify for Europe. Wolves are in ninth on 41 points, three points behind West Ham with a game in hand on the Hammers. There's a bit of an injury issue for Wolves right now, but O'Neil's side have continued to defy expectations and outperform their market rating this season.
They did have a significant set back in their last match, a last minute 3-2 defeat at home to Coventry in the FA Cup quarterfinals. Wolves were just minutes away from a 2-1 win and a trip to Wembley Stadium for the semifinal, and instead they went into the international break on a sour note.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa have had significant defensive issues in the second half of the season and that will be what costs them a Champions League place if they were to slip up in the remaining nine matches of the season. Since the new year began, Villa are conceding 1.88 xGA per 90 minutes, which is sixth-worst in the Premier League in that time span. Prior to the new year, that number was much lower at 1.4 per 90. There have been a combination of injuries and suspensions now that leave them shorthanded on midfield control and ball winning.
An injury to Boubacar Kamara leaves them without their best tackler. A suspension to John McGinn means no player to receive the ball from the back line, turn under pressure and play it forward. McGinn and Kamara were not a flashy midfield, but they were effective.
For as much as the defense has struggled, the attack has three players producing at least 0.6 xG + xA per 90. Moussa Diaby, Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins are as consistent as any front three and they continue to remain fit and produce at levels to keep Villa with a positive xG difference since New Year. Given that the defenses across the league are struggling mightily, the consistent production of that front three gives Villa the required high floor to overcome their defensive flaws.
Wolves
Wolves sit in ninth place but are below average in both attack and defense as currently constructed. They did receive some positive injury news in that Matheus Cunha should be back in some capacity from injury to aid the attack. The problem is that Hwang Hee-Chan is their leading scorer with 11 goals and Pedro Neto is one of their top creative outlets and dribblers on the break and both are out with injuries for this match.
They had back to back matches against Newcastle and Fulham — clearly below average PL defenses — and couldn't create a full expected goal against either. This is all while still conceding xG at a higher than average rate.
Villa have been effective at breaking down more defensive sides for the majority of this season. The pace and dribbling quality of Bailey and Diaby enable Villa to get in behind and win 1-on-1s against more set defenses with numbers behind the ball.
Wolves are producing just 1.2 xG per 90 since Jan. 1, and those numbers include a lot of minutes with Neto in the lineup. Without him, you're left with a bottom six attack and the same mediocre defense that has led to Wolves producing a -0.56 xG difference per 90 in the last two months.
Aston Villa vs Wolves
Prediction
Aston Villa have a +0.13 xG difference per 90 in the last 2.5 months, which is considerably worse than the first half. It's true their performances have declined, but not as much as the market is downgrading them with this price. Wolves' defense is still quite flawed overall, and their own attack can't make up for it in transition given the key absences.
As a result, I'd lay Aston Villa at -165 or better in this Saturday derby matchup at Villa Park.
