One of the less-discussed aspects of the new Champions League format is the increased probability of previously unseen matchups it brings.
With four additional clubs reaching the league phase of the competition and every team facing eight different opponents — as opposed to just three in the old group stage — we're sure to get a few unique contests. While a lot of these will occur between teams drawn from Pot 3 and especially Pot 4, there is also the occasional first meeting between teams in Pots 1 and 2.
This fixture is one such example. The Gunners have made a number of trips to Milan to face the Rossoneri and Nerazzurri, but they've never traveled 30 miles east to square off with Atalanta in Bergamo.
How will the initial clash of these two outfits play out? Read on for my Atalanta vs Arsenal prediction.
Atalanta vs. Arsenal Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Atalanta Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 2.5 -118o / -104u | +330 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 2.5 -118o / -104u | -125 |
- Atalanta vs. Arsenal moneyline odds: Atalanta +330, Arsenal -125, Draw +275
- Atalanta vs. Arsenal over/under: 2.5 goals (over -118, under -104)
- Atalanta vs. Arsenal pick: Atalanta ML
I am backing the Atalanta moneyline in Arsenal vs. Atalanta.
Atalanta Preview
La Dea finished the 2023/24 campaign flying high. They triumphed over Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League final, claiming their first continental trophy in club history and becoming the only team to defeat Die Werkself the entire year.
Their start to the follow-up act hasn't been as spectacular. Midfield lynchpin Teun Koopmeiners departed for Juventus, and although falling to Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup was understandable, the 2-1 loss at Torino and 4-0 shellacking by Inter at San Siro were less so. Granted, Gian Piero Gasperini had just one fit center back at his disposal for that Inter clash, and his players did rebound after the international break with a close win against Fiorentina. Currently, Atalanta sit ninth in Serie A after four matches.
On the injury front, starting striker Gianluca Scamacca and center back Giorgio Scalvini are out, but having someone like Mateo Retegui to cover for the former is a luxury only Champions League clubs can afford. Otherwise, there won't be too much mystery when it comes to Atalanta's approach to this match. Gasperini and co. have an extremely recognizable identity that starts with their man-to-man high press and just general intensity through all phases. Against an opponent like Arsenal, there might be more of an emphasis on sitting in a 5-2-3 mid/low block, but they have the transitional threat, namely Ademola Lookman, to make that work.
Arsenal Preview
These past few weeks have not been kind to Arsenal. They're dealing with a number of new injury issues, most notably to Martin Odegaard along with summer signings Mikel Merino and Riccardo Calafiori. The timing of these absences has been atrocious too, as they had the North London derby last Sunday, now have this fixture and then travel to the Etihad this weekend to face the reigning Premier League champions.
A lot of the negative vibes were erased after Mikel Arteta and co. ground out a 1-0 win at Tottenham, and now Declan Rice has served his one-match suspension — though that wouldn't have impacted his ability to feature in this one. However, Bukayo Saka did go off with a knock in that match, but he was back in training on Wednesday, so he'll almost certainly be starting again here.
Depending on the statuses of his hurt players and with a game of such high magnitude just three days later, it's hard to know what exactly Arteta will do with his starting XI. He'd ideally like to give Jurrien Timber some rest, but if Riccardo Calafiori isn't ready to start after returning from injury, the Dutchman might keep his place at left back. The Arsenal boss does have some more flexibility with replacing Odegaard, who will be out for around eight weeks, as Kai Havertz, Ethan Nwaneri and Saka are all capable of filling that role.
As always, there's no doubting Arsenal's quality, and no matter what the starting lineup and bench look like, there will be the expectation that this is a match they can and should win.
Atalanta vs Arsenal Champions League Prediction
The amount of doubt surrounding the health of Arsenal's squad combined with the context of this game puts a lot of value on Atalanta's moneyline. The Bergamo club will be hosting a big European name and has shown in the past they can disrupt and overcome opponents they're pretty clearly inferior to. On the other side, the Gunners are coming off an emotional victory and have a fixture with massive implications on the Premier League title following this one, so I do worry about how "ready" they'll be to play here.
Additionally, about a year ago, Arsenal traveled to France to face Lens and lost 2-1. With the support of a raucous atmosphere, Lens deployed a similar 3-4-3/5-2-3 setup, at least out of possession, to what Atalanta will put out, and that really caused the London club problems. Considering all of this, at +300 or better (25% or lower implied probability), I like backing La Dea to pull out a shock win at home.
