Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds
| Atalanta Odds | +320 |
| Bayer Leverkusen Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125o / +100u |
Leverkusen look to win their second trophy of the season and kept their unbeaten streak alive when they face Atalanta in the Europa League final.
Atalanta have been surging over the second half of the season and took out some big time heavy hitters to get to the final here against Leverkusen.
They took down the Portuguese champions Sporting Lisbon, beat Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield and took down an underrated Marseille side to get to this final. With that being said, Leverkusen are clear level above all of those sides, so this is going to be a really difficult match for them.
Leverkusen made history on Saturday going the entire 34 match season unbeaten in the Bundesliga. They also have not lost in any other competition, so if they can win here against Atalanta and beat Kaiserslautern in the DFB Pokal Final it will go down as truly the greatest season in modern football history.
They got by Qarabag, West Ham and Roma to get here, so Atalanta will be the best team they have faced throughout this competition.
Let's dive into my Europa League final preview for Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen.
Atalanta
While Atalanta have gone through this great run to the final, beating Sporting Lisbon, Liverpool and Marseille, I am not sure they are ready for the opponent they are about to face.
Atalanta are a really good defensive team, but the three teams I just mentioned tried to play in transition against them and got beat. Leverkusen are one of the best build up teams in the world and Atalanta are not regularly facing teams playing this style in Serie A.
The closest thing to Leverkusen’s three man combinations and quick passing that has played through everybody would be Thiago Motta’s Bologna and they got beat in both of those matches. Even when they played Inter, who are a really good in possession team despite their directness by nature, they were pretty thoroughly dominated in both meetings against them as well.
Under Gasperini they will consistently build up out of a back three trying to get wide passing triangles against the opponent's press and they do it with a lot of success.
Then once they enter the final third they commit a ton of bodies into the attack and have been really good creating chances from wide areas, as they’ve completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area in Serie A, which is a way they could exploit Leverkusen with how often their full backs push high up the pitch.
Atalanta may also have the hottest striker on the planet in Gianlucca Scmacca, who has now scored 17 goals in all competitions in only 23.6 90s with a lot of those goals coming via crosses.
Bayer Leverkusen
Nobody has been able to do it this season, but how do you beat Leverkusen? Well, it goes without saying that it’s really difficult because of their fluidity and near ball overloads, which make it almost impossible to win the ball off of them.
They take advantage of the concept of “vacated space” better than anyone in the world. If you want to press them, they will constantly have three man combinations to play quickly right through you and be running right at your back line.
What makes them so difficult to prepare for is unlike Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, who mainly play through the middle or Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who mainly play through the wide channels, Leverkusen can build up through any part of the pitch and their players are so well drilled to understanding this that it makes it incredibly difficult for opposing defenses to stop them.
In addition to being so difficult in terms of the area of the pitch in where they build up, they aren't completely reliant on using short passes to play through an opponents pressure.
The concept of "overload to isolate" is massive in Alonso's build up. As you can see from the clip below, overloading one side of the pitch to create space for a switch ball to the advancing fullback is something they do time and time again. It's a big reason why their fullbacks, Grimaldo and Frimpong, have combined for 26 goals this season.
🔴Tactical Masterclass : Build-Up and Possession – Bayer 04 Leverkusen🇩🇪 Xabi Alonso🇪🇸
-الجودة في البناء ليست في الخروج بالكرة في الظروف العادية بل في القدرة على جذب المنافس للضغط لخلق المساحة/Attract TO Create Spaces ومن ثم الخروج تحت هذا الضغط من خلال بعض النقاط التكتيكية كـ : pic.twitter.com/s54B8lSmY2— Mostafa Gamal El-Din (@Mostafa87050647) April 13, 2024
Leverkusen are also an elite counter-pressing team when they do lose the ball. They were first in Germany in high turnovers and also only allowed 0.87 npxG in the highest scoring league among Europe’s top five leagues.
Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen
Prediction
Even though Atalanta have ended the season in red hot form, flying up the Serie A table to secure Champions League qualification, this is a terrible matchup for them against a team that I am not sure they are well-suited to contain.
Yes, they did beat Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield, but in that first leg they decided to go old school, man to man marking all over the pitch and conceded 2.6 expected goals off of 19 shots, so let's not act like it was a defensive masterclass performance.
It's easy to go man to man in Serie A where most teams ball circulation, passing and rotations are incredibly slow comparatively to other leagues. If they try to man mark Leverkusen with how quick and fluid their build up is, they are going to get ripped to shreds and this final is going to be over real quick.
With Leverkusen likely able to have a lot success in build up and being the exact type of team that Atalanta have struggled with this season, I like the value on them at -125.
