Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca Odds
| Athletic Bilbao Odds | -175 |
| Mallorca Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -154 |
Kicking off this weekend’s La Liga action, Athletic Bilbao host Mallorca on Friday night in San Mamés.
The Basque country club is having an excellent season, entering this game in fifth in the league standings and the semifinals of the Copa del Rey.
Meanwhile, the visitors are just four points above the relegation zone, and they only have one win off the island.
There is a saying to always back the home side on Friday nights in Spain, and I think this could be another time to follow this trend.
Read on for my Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca prediction.
Athletic Bilbao
If you have been following the Spanish top flight, you know that Javier Aguirre’s team is known for having a stout defense. This year is no different.
Mallorca rank in the top four in La Liga in big chances allowed per match (1.7) and in the top half in expected goals given up per fixture (1.14), according to fbref.com.
With this strong defense, the question is always whether the attack can do just enough to pick up results. The scoring has come down to the duo of Abdón Prats and Vedat Muriqi.
The two have combined for nine goals and a trio of assists, which makes up 63% of Mallorca’s league goals. They will need to come up big in this spot on the road.
Mallorca
It is crazy to think that Athletic Club have not participated in a European competition since the 2017-18 season. However, Ernesto Valverde has his side in a good spot to end this streak in multiple ways.
In the league, Bilbao are currently in the Europa League place and five points ahead of rival Real Sociedad in sixth. Meanwhile, Valverde’s team is also in the semifinal of the Copa del Rey, where the winner of the cup earns a place in the same tournament.
Valverde also boasts a dynamic duo up front in Gorka Guruzeta and Iñaki Williams. They have 16 goals and four assists between the two of them this campaign.
Overall, Athletic have 13 players who have found the back of the net, and I like the club’s chances of playing in Europe next season.
Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca
Prediction
Just like how followers of this league know Mallorca have a strong defense, they also know that this is a club that has struggled off the island. I don’t see that changing here.
With that said, my best bet is to take Athletic Club on the Asian handicap line of -1 at +107. I would play this to -120.
At home this season, Bilbao rank first in La Liga in xGDiff at +14.5. This is the same team that is second in expected goals (2.2) and big chances (3.9) per 90 minutes at San Mamés.
I also like how the Basque country team has played against similar opposition. At home against sides in the bottom 10 of the league, Athletic have won all four games and covered this spread on three occasions.
Meanwhile, Mallorca have only gotten one result on the road against a top 10 club, which was at Las Palmas in the season opener. Aguirre’s team has also failed to score in four of those six matches.
I don’t like the fact that Bilbao play the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinal on Wednesday, but I still think they will at minimum get the win at home on Friday night.
