Athletic Club vs Barcelona Odds, Prediction
| Athletic Club Odds | +180 |
| Barcelona Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Athletic Club and Barcelona meet in the quarterfinals of the Copa del Rey on Wednesday night at San Mamés.
The home side has outscored opponents 10-1 and has not given up a goal in the last three rounds of this competition.
Meanwhile, the visitors are looking to for a cup trophy after losing to Real Madrid in the Supercopa de España final last week.
These are two of the best sides in Spain battling for the biggest domestic cup in the country, and I believe this should be a great match in Basque country.
Here is my Athletic Club vs Barcelona prediction.
Athletic Club
This trophy would go a long way in helping Xavi keep his job after his name appears to be on the hot seat with the bad start to the campaign.
Barcelona come into this match in third in the La Liga table behind Real Madrid and trailing Girona by eight points. However, the underlying metrics do paint a different picture.
On the season, Xavi’s side has the best xGDiff in the Spanish top flight at +24.8, according to fbref.com. Meanwhile, the Catalan club has also generated the most expected goals and big scoring chances in the league.
While advancing in the Champions League helps, Xavi needs a win here to push for a much-needed trophy this season.
Barcelona
With the 2017-18 campaign being the last season of European football at the club, manager Ernesto Valverde has his side in a great spot to end that streak.
Athletic are in fifth in the league table with 41 points, tied with Atlético Madrid and just three points behind Barcelona.
This is the same side that is second in La Liga in multiple key statistics, including xGDiff (+15.9), expected goals allowed per match (0.99) and big chances created (60).
Valverde will also be delighted with the return of Iñaki Williams from the African Cup of Nations due to Ghana’s early elimination. He should have his full complement of attackers in this one.
Athletic Club vs Barcelona
Prediction
Based on the odds for this match, this line would suggest that Barcelona would be close to an even-money favorite on a neutral field and even bigger at home. I don’t believe this should be the case.
So, my best bet is to take Athletic at a PK or draw no bet at +105 at bet365, which I would bet to -120. I also don’t hate the home side to advance at -106.
San Mamés has not been an easy place to get a result this season for visitors. On the campaign, Bilbao have the best home xGDiff and only one loss to Real Madrid.
Valverde’s team has also posted a +7.4 expected goal difference at home to teams in the Top 10 of La Liga, while also just 0.91 xG on average in those league fixtures.
I do like how well Barcelona have played recently, especially the attacking metrics. However, I still think Xavi’s team is susceptible defensively.
I’ll take the home side in a tough environment to at least avoid defeat in this midweek cup match.
