Atletico vs Dortmund Odds
| Atlético Madrid Odds | -125 |
| Borussia Dortmund Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Atlético Madrid advanced to the Champions League quarterfinal in dramatic fashion with a comeback victory against Inter Milan in the round of 16, culminating in a penalty shootout victory. The Spanish side is power rated as the seventh-best of the eight remaining in the field, and Diego Simeone will have likely been pleased to see them draw the weakest team (by market rating) left in the field.
Borussia Dortmund survived numerous late scares from PSV Eindhoven in their round of 16 tie, opening the door for the German side to return to the CL quarterfinals for the first time since 2021. Given their precarious position in fifth place in Germany, it's no guarantee that Dortmund will make it back to the competition next year.
The market opened with this two-legged tie near a toss-up, but Atlético Madrid have continued to take money and are now a -163 favorite to make the semifinal as of Tuesday night. Dortmund's flaws defensively leave them vulnerable, especially away from home, and Simeone's side isn't winning with defense like years past.
Here is how I am betting Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund in my latest Champions League match preview.
Atlético Madrid
This is no longer the elite Atlético Madrid defense that struggles to consistently create chances going forward and relies on moments of individual brilliance. Even in the first leg against Inter Milan, it wasn't as though Atlético Madrid parked the bus and played for the goalless draw. They were conservative and ceded the majority of the possession to Inter, but it wasn't a low block defensive approach. In fact, Atletico pushed their defensive line up and a quick transition off of a high turnover is actually what led to both Inter Milan goals in the tie.
Dortmund will see this and try to replicate the success Inter had in forcing high turnovers and breaking quickly. The problem is that Dortmund are considerably worse defensively than Inter, and this version of Atletico has more than enough goal threat to score now.
xG per match in Spain:
2020-21: 1.39
2021-22: 1.43
2022-23: 1.62
2023-24: 1.71
Atlético Madrid won La Liga in 2020-21 with a far worse attack than the one they currently have.
On the other end, the defensive drop-off is marginal, but the goals allowed per match have ticked up as Jan Oblak has stopped being the world's best shot stopper in goal.
xG allowed per match in Spain:
2020-21: 0.97
2021-22: 0.88
2022-23: 1.08
2023-24: 1.19
When betting on a favorite, like Atlético Madrid are in this first leg in Madrid on Wednesday, I'd prefer the more explosive goal scoring version to better create margin over the inferior opponent in a one-off match.
Borussia Dortmund
The question with Dortmund is whether or not their defense can hold up against quality competition. Dortmund did just beat Bayern Munich in Munich for the first time in a decade two weeks ago, but they still conceded more than two expected goals in that match and were rather fortunate to take all three points based on the quality of chances created. Dortmund followed up that win with a 1-0 loss at home to Stuttgart.
Goal prevention has been an issue for Dortmund all season long. The Blacks and Yellows have the eighth-best xGA in Germany this year. Only the elite — and likely unsustainable — shot-stopping of Gregor Kobel has prevented them from conceding more goals. Dortmund have allowed just 33 goals from 43 xGA.
No player in the entire Bundesliga has saved more goals over expected than the Swiss keeper. Dortmund have allowed 110 shots from set pieces, which is ninth-most in Germany. They're also ninth in xGA per set piece allowed, which will be an issue against an Atletico attack that excels in La Liga in set piece efficiency going forward.
Their defense has really struggled to hold up in the CL as well. They made three away trips in the group stage to PSG, Milan and Newcastle. They averaged 1.9 expected goals allowed per match. The defensive issues aren't just the quality of chances allowed either. Only three teams in the entire Champions League have allowed more touches per match in their own penalty area, and only four allowed more possession in their own half.
You'd expect Dortmund to have quality attacking numbers too, but their attack wasn't all that efficient either. Dortmund were 24th in attacking threatening touches and rode some good finishing variance at both ends of the pitch to its spot in the quarterfinal.
Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
Prediction
Spain is rated considerably higher than Germany in my power ratings at the moment, and Atlético Madrid have better underlying metrics in their own domestic league. Given how fortunate Dortmund's defense has run to this point in the Champions League — including one goal allowed to PSV despite 3.3 xGA – I'll back Atlético Madrid and Diego Simeone to take an aggregate lead at home in this tie.
The market has moved from Atlético Madrid +100 on the opener to the current -125 price, and I wouldn't bet it higher than -130.
