Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig square off in a hug Champions League encounter at the Metropolitano Stadium.
Atletico Madrid are off to a good start to their La Liga campaign, going unbeaten in their first five matches and putting up good underlying numbers in the process. It's been a busy summer with Diego Simone's side bringing a lot of new high profile players to try and keep up with Real Madrid and Barcelona. They made the quarterfinals of the Champions League last year and are expecting a deeper run this time around with an improved squad.
RB Leipzig have had an up and down start in the Bundesliga. They did pull off an incredible upset of Leverkusen, but they struggled to beat Bochum in the opener and then drew Union Berlin over the weekend. Marco Rose's side has done well in the Champions League in past years, almost always making it to the knockout stage and it will be a live underdog in this match.
Here is my Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig prediction.
Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Atletico Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -135 | 2.5 -1560 / +124u | -135 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +110 | 2.5 -156o / +124u | +375 |
- Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig moneyline odds: Atletico Madrid -135, RB Leizpig +375, Draw +290
- Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig over/under: 2.5 goals (over -156, under +124)
- Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig pick: RB Leipzig +0.5
I am backing the RB Leipzig in RB Leipzig vs. Atletico Madrid.
Atletico Madrid Preview
Atletico Madrid have evolved over the years and are no longer the 4-4-2 direct counterattacking team that you once knew. Simeone is now having his team build out of the back with regularity, but they do it in many different formations to try and confuse their opposition. The aim is generally to get the ball into wide areas to get a 2 v 1 versus the opposing fullback, so Madrid can create a chance via a cross.
When Atletico get the ball to the final third they are really good at creating chances from the half space and making dummy runs to open up space for the forwards to receive the ball in the box. The Atletico attack is no doubt going to improve this season with the addition of Julian Alvarez from Manchester City and Alexander Sørloth, who is coming off a 23-goal season with Villarreal.
The cornerstone of the Atletico Madrid team though is how solid they are defensively. Traditionally, Simeone has favored a 4-4-2, but in recent years he has transitioned to more of a 5-3-2 to help prevent teams from overloading the last line of defense. Through their first five matches they have yet to concede over one expected goals, but this will be the best offensive and transition team they have seen so far this season.
RB Leipzig Preview
RB Leipzig haven't been their usual selves in the beginning of the season, but they are the type of team that can give Atletico Madrid problems. They have loads of talent in their attack, but most importantly those attackers are incredibly dangerous in transition.
Leipzig are set up really well to play without the ball. A staple under Marco Rose is his 4-2-2-2 system where he wants his team to attack through the middle of the pitch. The front two of Sesko and Openda combined for 38 goals in the Bundesliga last season, while Simons playing in the half space compiled 11 assists.
The 4-2-2-2 formation also allows Leipzig to maintain a very narrow shape, so teams aren't able to control or hurt them through the middle of the pitch. In a very high-event league, RB Leipzig only conceded 1.07 npxG per 90 minutes. They also played Real Madrid incredibly tough in the round of 16 last year. Over the two legs, they only allowed the eventual champions to score twice and create 2.2 expected goals over the two legs and actually won the expected goals battle in the second leg in Madrid.
Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig Prediction
Atletico Madrid have put up fantastic defensive numbers so far in La Liga, but let's be honest, it's been against much worse competition than they are going to face on Thursday. While Atletico Madrid are a good team defending in a passive block, there are some questions on how they handle RB Leipzig's quick transition breaks.
Atletico Madrid played Dortmund in the quarterfinals last year and conceded five goals over the two legs. La Liga and the Bundesliga are weighted as very similar leagues from a UEFA coefficient standpoint. RB Leipzig had better underlying numbers in the Bundesliga than Atletico did in La Liga. So, in my opinion the home side is getting overvalued because they are in better form, not because they are a better team.
I only have Atletico Madrid projected at +125, so I like the value on the RB Leipzig +0.5 at +107.
